SportsLine's college basketball model has called 25 first-round NCAA Tournament upsets by double-digit seeds
By Blake Von Hagen Mar 18, 2026 at 5:12 pm ET • 3 min read 
Imagn Images Recent history indicates that reigning champion Florida not only won't repeat in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, but the Gators won't even reach the second weekend. Of the eight prior national champions, only UConn made it past the second round when defending its title. Six of the eight reigning champions, including UConn just last year, were knocked out in the Round of 32, while Virginia followed up its 2019 win with a first-round exit.
Teams are gunning to be the ones to knock the reigning champs out of the NCAA Tournament 2026. Florida is the top seed in the South Region of the 2026 March Madness bracket, which also consists of Houston, Illinois and North Carolina. Can the Gators buck history and have a lengthy March Madness run? Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket being revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
2026 March Madness bracket games to watch
One of the 2026 March Madness matchups to keep an eye on: No. 8 seed Villanova vs. No. 9 seed Utah State in the West Region. Nova's won eight straight Round of 64 games but is making its first tourney appearance since Jay Wright retired. The Wildcats dropped all five of their games versus ranked teams this season, while Utah State didn't face a single ranked squad en route to a 28-6 record. It split its two matchups versus 2025 NCAA tourney teams as the Aggies rely on their interior scoring, ranking in the top 15 in both FG% and 2P%.
Also in the West Region, Miami vs. Missouri figures to be a pivotal 7 vs. 10 matchup. Miami is 25-8 after posting a 7-24 record a year ago, with this 18-win increase being the largest by any D1 team. First-year HC Jai Lucas encourages his team to attack the basket as the Canes rank fourth with 41.1 paint points per game, but their 6.6 made 3Ps per game rank just 296th. As for Mizzou, it's dropped three straight but gets an essential home game with this matchup taking place in St. Louis. It also has a bonafide star in Mark Mitchell, who is coming off back-to-back 32-point games and is the only SEC player averaging 18 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists this season.
The third matchup to watch in the West Region features No. 4 seed Arkansas vs. No. 13 seed Hawaii. Both of these programs were runners-up in their respective conferences during the regular season, but put together a run to win their conference tournaments. Arkansas won the SEC to make John Calipari the first head coach to win that tournament with two different teams while Hawaii won the Big West. Darius Acuff had 30 points for the Razorbacks in their win while Isaac Johnson scored 22 points for the Rainbow Warriors in their triumph. Tipoff for this matchup is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET on Thursday. You can see how far all these teams go over at SportsLine.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
How far will those major programs go? And which Cinderella teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it is calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament bracket 2026? And which 2026 March Madness underdogs will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams you can back with confidence, all from the model that's nailed 25 upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception and beat over 91% of players in four of the last seven tournaments.
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