NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket picks, upsets, Cinderella teams: Proven model simulates March Madness 10K times

SportsLine's college basketball model has called 25 first-round NCAA Tournament upsets by double-digit seeds

Gonzaga is one of the most highly regarded mid-majors in the 2026 March Madness bracket, but the Bulldogs aren't the only team in their conference consistently showing up in the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket. Saint Mary's is playing in its fifth straight March Madness, and the Gaels have won a game in three of their last four NCAA Tournaments. However, whereas Gonzaga consistently reaches the Sweet 16 and beyond, Saint Mary's hasn't reached the Sweet 16 since 2010. Can you confidently put the Gaels past the first round in your 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks?

Saint Mary's is a No. 7 seed in the 2026 NCAA bracket. Randy Bennett enters his 25th year as Saint Mary's head coach and his 12th March Madness, so how should his experience alter your 2026 March Madness bracket strategy? Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.

It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.

Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket being revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

2026 March Madness bracket games to watch

One of the 2026 March Madness matchups to keep an eye on: No. 8 seed Villanova vs. No. 9 seed Utah State in the West Region. Nova's won eight straight Round of 64 games but is making its first tourney appearance since Jay Wright retired. The Wildcats dropped all five of their games versus ranked teams this season, while Utah State didn't face a single ranked squad en route to a 28-6 record. It split its two matchups versus 2025 NCAA tourney teams as the Aggies rely on their interior scoring, ranking in the top 15 in both FG% and 2P%.

Also in the West Region, Miami vs. Missouri figures to be a pivotal 7 vs. 10 matchup. All NCAA Tournament games are played at neutral sites, however, Missouri will likely have a significant crowd advantage in this contest at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri. The arena is roughly 10 miles from the Missouri campus, giving the No. 10 seed an advantage over the No. 7 seed in that respect. Missouri has lost three straight games, but the Tigers opened SEC play with wins over Florida and Kentucky, showing the ability to compete with the best in the nation. Miami lost to Florida by 14 points this season, but the Hurricanes defeated No. 11 North Carolina this year. The last time Miami was in the NCAA Tournament, it reached the Final Four in 2023.

The third matchup to watch in the West Region features No. 4 seed Arkansas vs. No. 13 seed Hawaii. Arkansas is coming off its first SEC Tournament title since 2000, as head coach John Calipari extended his record for most SEC Tournament titles to seven. The Razorbacks are led by star freshmen Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas, who became the first SEC freshman duo since 2016-17 to average over 15 points per game each. They are facing a Hawaii team that is in the Big Dance for the sixth time in school history and the first time since 2016, when it took down No. 4 seed California in the first round.  You can see how far all these teams go over at SportsLine.

How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions

How far will those major programs go? And which Cinderella teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it is calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament bracket 2026? And which 2026 March Madness underdogs will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams you can back with confidence, all from the model that's nailed 25 upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception and beat over 91% of players in four of the last seven tournaments.