SportsLine's model nailed 12 of the teams in the Sweet 16 last season and simulated the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket 10,000 times
By Ross Kelly Mar 19, 2026 at 10:46 am ET • 3 min read 
Imagn Images The SEC received 10 bids to the 2026 NCAA Tournament, the most of any conference. Last year, the SEC had a record 14 teams in the March Madness bracket, with half of those teams reaching the Sweet 16, including eventual national champion Florida. The No. 1 seed Gators are looking to defend their title in the 2026 March Madness bracket and are trying to become the second school to repeat as national champions multiple times. Should you have the Gators cutting down the nets with your 2026 March Madness bracket picks?
Duke is the No. 1 overall seed in the 2026 NCAA bracket after winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles. However, since the committee started naming the overall No. 1 seed, only four of 21 have won the championship, while eight lost in the Sweet 16 or earlier. Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
Three 2026 March Madness bracket games to watch
One of the most intriguing 2026 March Madness matchups to watch: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 TCU in the East region. This is one of just five first-round matchups between power conference teams, and these squads have similar profiles. Ohio State's average point differential of +7.0 is slightly better than TCU's mark of +6.2, but the Horned Frogs are a bit better versus Top 25 teams (3-6 record) than the Buckeyes (2-8). OSU does own a 4-0 all-time record versus TCU, but 9-seeds have gotten the better of 8-seeds in recent tourneys, winning 64.3% of matchups since 2018.
Another 2026 NCAA Tournament matchup to keep an eye on is No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 UCF in the East Region. UCLA has the second-most Final Four appearances in NCAA Tournament history and the fifth-most wins. The Bruins have won seven straight games in the Round of 64, while UCF is 1-5 in its previous six appearances. UCF became the fourth team in the last 20 years to make the Big Dance with zero points from returning players.
Another 2026 March Madness game to watch out for: No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 South Florida in the East Region. Louisville, a three-time national champion, is 23-10 after winning 27 games last season, as head coach Pat Kelsey appears on his way to restoring the Cardinals to the status of the sport's elite. The Cardinals are led by the guard duo of Ryan Conwell and Mikel Brown Jr., who are both averaging more than 18 points per game this season. Meanwhile, South Florida is 25-8, one win away from its most wins in its 53-year history. The Bulls also won 25 games in the 2023-24 season, which included a NIT game win. Head coach Bryan Hodgson is drawing interest from some of the top basketball programs in the nation as he's gaining national recognition ahead of what figures to be a top 6 vs. 11 contest. You can only see the model's 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which double-digit seeds you can back with confidence, all from the model that called all four Final Four teams in 2025.
Join the Conversation comments
