SportsLine's model nailed 12 of the teams in the Sweet 16 last season and simulated the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket 10,000 times
By Ross Kelly Mar 18, 2026 at 12:58 pm ET • 3 min read 
Imagn Images The 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket is set and millions of people are feverishly entering March Madness picks 2026. Rick Barnes has led the Tennessee Volunteers to back-to-back Elite Eights as a No. 2 seed, but a more mercurial bunch this season has yielded a No. 6 seed in the Midwest Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket. They'll take on the winner of SMU vs. Miami (OH) in the First Four.
Tipoff for Tennessee vs. the SMU/Miami(OH) winner is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET on Friday. Could the Volunteers be on upset alert against a team with a chance to build momentum in the NCAA Tournament 2026 and become one of the 2026 March Madness Cinderella teams? Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
Three 2026 March Madness bracket games to watch
One of the most intriguing 2026 March Madness matchups to watch: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 TCU in the East region. The Buckeyes are unbeaten in four all-time meetings against the Horned Frogs, but none of those games have happened since 1969. Ohio State is back in the Big Dance after missing the last three editions, while the Horned Frogs are returning for the fourth time in five seasons. TCU won a game in two of the last three NCAA Tournaments under head coach Jamie Dixon.
Another 2026 NCAA Tournament matchup to keep an eye on is No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 UCF in the East Region. The Big Ten and Big 12 were two of the best conferences in college basketball this season, with the former earning nine bids and the latter earning eight. However, this is one of only two Big Ten vs. Big 12 matchups in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. UCLA is coming off a 23-12 season where it went 13-7 in conference play and UCF went 21-11 and was 9-9 in its league. Tipoff for this matchup is scheduled for 7:25 p.m. ET on Friday.
Another 2026 March Madness game to watch out for: No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 South Florida in the East Region. Louisville is basically looking into a mirror at itself from last year in this matchup. South Florida enters with 25 wins after winning just 13 games last year. Last March, Louisville had 27 wins after eight victories the year before, with new coaches at each school leading to significant improvements. Pat Kelsey now enters Year 2 at Louisville, and the Cardinals are 23-10 this season. Bryan Hodgson has South Florida entering March Madness at 25-8, in what could be a one-and-done situation for him at the school, with rumors linking him to Syracuse and Providence. Hodgson says he remains focused on finishing this season strong, though, as South Florida seeks its first NCAA Tournament win since 2012. Louisville's last March Madness win came in 2017. You can only see the model's 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which double-digit seeds you can back with confidence, all from the model that called all four Final Four teams in 2025.
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