SportsLine's model nailed 12 of the teams in the Sweet 16 last season and simulated the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket 10,000 times
By Ross Kelly Mar 19, 2026 at 9:07 am ET • 3 min read 
Imagn Images We are quickly approaching the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket lock on Thursday with No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 TCU at 12:15 p.m. ET. Time is running out to get in your 2026 March Madness bracket picks. Millions are going back-and-forth over their Sweet 16, Elite Eight, Final Four and National Champion selections, wondering which 2026 NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams to back and what favorites could be destined for an early exit. Florida, the No. 1 seed in the South Region of the 2026 March Madness bracket, is looking to follow UConn's trend as back-to-back champions. Are the Gators the best national champion pick to include in 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks?
UConn won back-to-back titles in 2023 and 2024 before the Gators won last year. Dan Hurley leads another strong Huskies team into 2026 March Madness. UConn is the No. 2 seed in a loaded East Region of the NCAA bracket 2026. Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
Three 2026 March Madness bracket games to watch
One of the most intriguing 2026 March Madness matchups to watch: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 TCU in the East region. This is one of just five first-round matchups between power conference teams, and these squads have similar profiles. Ohio State's average point differential of +7.0 is slightly better than TCU's mark of +6.2, but the Horned Frogs are a bit better versus Top 25 teams (3-6 record) than the Buckeyes (2-8). OSU does own a 4-0 all-time record versus TCU, but 9-seeds have gotten the better of 8-seeds in recent tourneys, winning 64.3% of matchups since 2018.
Another 2026 NCAA Tournament matchup to keep an eye on is No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 UCF in the East Region. UCLA is in the Big Dance for the 54th time, which is tied for the third-most all-time. The Bruins have the sixth-most experienced roster in college basketball and are led by head coach Mick Cronin, who took them to the 2021 Final Four as a No. 11 seed. UCF is just 1-5 in NCAA Tournament games all-time, with its lone win coming against VCU in the Round of 64 in 2019.
Another 2026 March Madness game to watch out for: No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 South Florida in the East Region. Louisville, a three-time national champion, is 23-10 after winning 27 games last season, as head coach Pat Kelsey appears on his way to restoring the Cardinals to the status of the sport's elite. The Cardinals are led by the guard duo of Ryan Conwell and Mikel Brown Jr., who are both averaging more than 18 points per game this season. Meanwhile, South Florida is 25-8, one win away from its most wins in its 53-year history. The Bulls also won 25 games in the 2023-24 season, which included a NIT game win. Head coach Bryan Hodgson is drawing interest from some of the top basketball programs in the nation as he's gaining national recognition ahead of what figures to be a top 6 vs. 11 contest. You can only see the model's 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which double-digit seeds you can back with confidence, all from the model that called all four Final Four teams in 2025.
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