SportsLine's model nailed 12 of the teams in the Sweet 16 last season and simulated the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket 10,000 times
By Ross Kelly Mar 18, 2026 at 9:37 am ET • 3 min read 
Imagn Images Last year's NCAA Tournament results would suggest that the gap between the top seeds and bottom seeds is growing. Teams seeded 13 to 16 went 0-16 last season, while all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four. However, zooming out to a larger sample size, the only two times has a 16-seed knocked off a 1-seed. Finding 2026 March Madness Cinderella picks is almost always a crucial part of building a winning 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket strategy. Which double-digit seeds should you target with your 2026 March Madness picks and 2026 NCAA Tournament upset picks?
Duke is the No. 1 overall seed in the 2026 March Madness bracket after winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles. The Blue Devils could be one of the popular 2026 NCAA Tournament picks to win it all, so how should you approach them in your 2026 March Madness pool picks? Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
Three 2026 March Madness bracket games to watch
One of the most intriguing 2026 March Madness matchups to watch: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 TCU in the East region. The Buckeyes are unbeaten in four all-time meetings against the Horned Frogs, but none of those games have happened since 1969. Ohio State is back in the Big Dance after missing the last three editions, while the Horned Frogs are returning for the fourth time in five seasons. TCU won a game in two of the last three NCAA Tournaments under head coach Jamie Dixon.
Another 2026 NCAA Tournament matchup to keep an eye on is No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 UCF in the East Region. Mick Cronin has been a regular participant in the NCAA Tournament since his days at Murray State and he'll make his 16th appearance in March Madness as a head coach after leading UCLA to a 23-11 campaign. Meanwhile, Johnny Dawkins guided UCF to its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2019 with a 20-11 season that included high-profile wins over Texas A&M, Kansas, Texas Tech and BYU. They'll tip off at 7:25 p.m. ET on Friday at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia.
Another 2026 March Madness game to watch out for: No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 South Florida in the East Region. Louisville is basically looking into a mirror at itself from last year in this matchup. South Florida enters with 25 wins after winning just 13 games last year. Last March, Louisville had 27 wins after eight victories the year before, with new coaches at each school leading to significant improvements. Pat Kelsey now enters Year 2 at Louisville, and the Cardinals are 23-10 this season. Bryan Hodgson has South Florida entering March Madness at 25-8, in what could be a one-and-done situation for him at the school, with rumors linking him to Syracuse and Providence. Hodgson says he remains focused on finishing this season strong, though, as South Florida seeks its first NCAA Tournament win since 2012. Louisville's last March Madness win came in 2017. You can only see the model's 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which double-digit seeds you can back with confidence, all from the model that called all four Final Four teams in 2025.
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