Mortgages, bills and jobs: Five takeaways from the Bank of England

The Bank of England has revealed some interesting details on the ways our finances might be affected as the conflict in the Middle East hits the economy.

Here are five key takeaways.

1. Rate rises could be on the way

Not that long ago, most economists were expecting interest rates to fall this year. The Iran war changed that.

Although the Bank held rates this month, it has signalled that rises could come later this year.

Because of "uncertainty around the severity and duration" of the war, the Bank considered a range of scenarios to determine how it will react in the coming months.

In the scenario the Bank governor put most weight on, with energy prices slowly falling, the rate-setting committee's deliberations suggest a rise or two could be on the cards.

In its most adverse scenario, which would see oil above $120 a barrel for the rest of the year and inflation topping 6% early next year, as many as six rate rises could be on the way, which could take the Bank's base rate to 5.5%.

Any rise in rates would increase the cost of borrowing and also the return on savings.

2. Millions face £80-a-month rise in mortgage bill

More than seven million homeowners have fixed-rate mortgages – that's 87% of all mortgages.

The interest rate on a fixed mortgage does not change until the deal expires, usually after two or five years, and a new one is chosen to replace it.

In its report, the Bank's rate-setting committee says that, over the next three years, average monthly payments for those moving on to a new deal are expected to rise by approximately £80.

But it stresses that is an average and there could be considerable variation, and that estimate will depend partly on the outlook for energy prices, which have a wide economic impact.

About 53% of UK mortgage holders are expected to see their payments rise, the Bank says, but around 25% of those who fixed at higher rates should see their payments fall, despite recent increases in rates.

3. Energy bills will go up – but not as much as they did in 2022

Given events in the Middle East, it was already inevitable that domestic energy bills will rise this summer. The Bank paints a relatively bleak picture, even though uncertainty still dominates. In short, it will take the region – and the wider energy sector – a while to recover in any scenario, so prices will rise.

Energy regulator Ofgem's price cap affects the bills of millions of households in England, Scotland and Wales. For a household using a typical amount of gas and electricity, the current annual bill is £1,641. The Bank suggests this will rise "close to £1,900" in July and stay there for the rest of the year.

However, the peak will not be as high as it was following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Also, nearly 40% of households are on fixed tariffs for electricity and gas, higher than the roughly 25% of households with fixed tariffs when prices shot up four years ago. These households will be protected from higher prices until their contracts end.

Those on prepayment meters can use less energy during the warmer summer months. "If prices are still high in the winter, then these households will face larger rises in costs," the Bank says.

4. Low-income households will be less able to cope

In every scenario outlined by the Bank, the rising cost of living – as measured by inflation – accelerates this year, with more uncertainty about what happens thereafter.

That is the result of rising energy prices which, in turn, push up the cost of people's food shop.

The Bank thinks food price inflation could rise to 4.6% in September, and could go even higher later in the year.

Food and fuel are essentials. Everyone needs to eat and heat. So, lower-income households would be harder hit when these prices rise, because paying these bills takes up a greater chunk of their income.

The Bank points out that some people can use less energy, or they can dip into savings to pay higher bills.

That is a lot harder for lower-income families. During Covid lockdowns some families had managed to save. But now, compared with when prices soared in 2022, a greater proportion of lower-income households have less than two weeks of income saved, the Bank says.

Opportunities to borrow are greater, but that comes with its own challenges.

5. Unemployment could rise further

Despite a surprise drop in the most recent jobless rate, UK unemployment has been steadily rising over the last year.

The Bank warned unemployment could rise further due to households erring on the side of caution and choosing to save more and spend less.

Weaker demand means firms are more likely to reduce hiring, especially if they are also facing rising costs from higher energy prices.

Although inflation is expected to rise, the Bank does not necessarily see this feeding through to wages this year as most pay settlements for 2026 have already been completed.

However, some committee members noted that higher inflation could impact 2027 wage negotiations.