Top prospect Andrew Painter makes his MLB debut Tuesday vs. the Nationals, and I have a same-game parlay
By Matt Severance Mar 31, 2026 at 9:01 am ET • 3 min read
Imagn Images There are a lot of interesting storylines around Major League Baseball on a typically busy Tuesday in terms of guys making their first start of the year on the mound. Future Hall of Famers Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Shohei Ohtani all are set for their 2026 pitching debuts, for example, But I'll focus on Nationals-Phillies because it's the big-league debut of touted Philadelphia rookie right-hander Andrew Painter. It's a 6:40 ET first pitch on MLB Network.
Painter is the ranked as the No. 26 overall prospect in the sport via MLB.com and No. 2 on the Phillies behind shortstop Aidan Miller, who is No. 21. Painter begins his career at +2000 for NL Rookie of the Year. Outfielder Justin Crawford, the No. 51 overall prospect who is hitting .333, is +2200. The Phils are trying to get younger on the fly as last year they had the second-oldest collection of position players (average age: 30.3) and seventh-oldest pitching staff (30) in the majors.
Check out our bet365 promo code to see the great new offer available when you wager on MLB futures.
The 6-foot-7, 215-pound Painter was the No. 13 overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft out of a Florida high school with an overall grade of 55 on a scale of 20-80 and a fastball graded at 70. He's considered the top pitching prospect in the organization since future World Series MVP Cole Hamels more than 20 years ago. A few guys from that 2021 draft class already have made a pretty big impact in the majors, such as Washington outfielder James Wood, Cincinnati starting pitcher Andrew Abbott and San Diego closer Mason Miller.
Painter dominated Double-A in his first full minor-league season and was named Baseball America's best pitcher in the minors in 2022. But then his career got sidetracked by Tommy John surgery that kept him off a mound for 2023 and '24. Last year across two levels of the minors, he was 5-8 with a 5.26 ERA in 26 starts as his fastball command came and went, common for guys off TJS and clearly not great numbers.
But his fastball averaged 95.6 mph in the minor leagues last year and reached 100.2 mph. The Phillies also had a gaping hole in the rotation after losing Ranger Suarez to free agency and with ace Zack Wheeler recovering from thoracic outlet decompression surgery. So Painter had a clear opening this spring and took it with a 2.31 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in four outings spanning 11.2 innings to get the No. 5 spot.
Fans who want to wager on MLB futures and tail Matt Severance's picks can check out the latest BetMGM promo code.
For this season, FanGraphs projects Painter at 7-8 with a 4.62 ERA in 124.0 innings, which surely would not be enough to win NL Rookie of the Year. Hamels didn't win that, and the only Phillies pitcher to do so was Jack Sanford in 1957.
Sitting 10 days shy of his 23rd birthday. Painter will be the youngest pitcher to start a game for the Phillies since Suárez on Aug. 16, 2018. Assuming Crawford plays center field tonight, it will mark the first time the Phils have an under-age 23 starting pitcher and position player in a game since Aug. 7, 2015 when they were Aaron Nola and Maikel Franco.
Check out the latest DraftKings promo code and bet on Tuesday's game.
It's expected to be the most highly anticipated debut by a homegrown Phillies pitcher since Hamels on May 12, 2006, when he took a no-decision in Cincinnati with five shutout innings, allowing just one hit with seven strikeouts. Hamels was a bit nervous with five walks, and I'll be playing Painter Over 1.5 walks for the same reason. His entire family and even high school coach will be in attendance. DraftKings lists him at Over/Under 2.5 earned runs, 14.5 outs and 4.5 strikeouts, while the SportsLine Projection Model has him at 5.1 innings, 5.0 strikeouts and 2.7 earned runs.
Painter just needs to be extra careful with Washington outfielder Joey Wiemer. He had an MLB-record-tying streak of 10 consecutive plate appearances to open the season snapped Monday but after singling in his first two at-bats. Wiemer is hitting a cool MLB-best .800 on the season. Fairly certain that's not sustainable.
Nationals-Phillies DraftKings same-game parlay (+100)
- Phillies ML
- Alt Under 11.5
Fans looking to follow Severance's same-game parlay can do so with the latest FanDuel promo code.
I don't have a huge lean on Painter overall but think he pitches pretty well, and the Phils win even if they aren't hitting much at .189. The Nats will open with former minor-league journeyman in 29-year-old PJ Poulin as the opener. Zack Littell likely is the primary behind him. The SportsLine Projection Model has Phillies 5.7-5.4. Check out other expert picks in the daily newsletter.
Join the Conversation comments
