More than two months of the 2026 Major League Baseball season are in the rearview mirror, but thanks to the daily nature of the sport and the footballization of society, we're still overreacting to small samples of baseball. We all do it (yes, I'm including myself). Let's do our thing here and break down some possible early June overreactions and examine whether we think the takes will hold up or are just what we said they were: total overreactions.
Rays are crashing back to Earth, clearing way for Yankees
From April 22 to May 22, the Rays went 22-4. The last game in that stretch was a win over the Yankees that moved the Rays to 34-15 on the season and gave them a 5 ½-game lead in the AL East.
Since then, the Rays have lost eight of 10, and their only two wins came against a hapless Angels team. What's worse, this wasn't exactly a stretch of the schedule against titans of the league. They've been swept by a losing team in the Orioles and a Tigers team that was arguably the worst in baseball before the series started. The Tigers sweep came at home for the Rays, too, where they were previously 21-6.
The Yankees have climbed back to within one game in the division and have a +92 run differential. The Rays are at +5.
We can all see where this is headed, right?
Verdict: Yeah, I'm sticking with the Yankees as my AL East champion. That's what I had in the spring and never strayed. The Rays were never nearly as good as they were playing during that 22-4 stretch. No team is that good, but Elite Ace stuff from Nick Martinez atop a thin rotation is hard to believe in, and there's only so much Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz can do to carry the offense.
The Yankees have a lot more talent and that'll continue to show as the season unfolds. The odds bear it out with the Yankees at -240 to win the AL East and the Rays at +200 (the Blue Jays are next at +2500).
The NL East race is over
The Braves are 42-20 with a +114 run differential. They are 17-2-1 in series this season, which is a good illustration of their remarkable, almost unbelievable, consistency (even the mighty Dodgers have lost a whopping five series). The Braves only have a three-game losing streak and two two-game losing streaks; all their other losses are isolated and they immediately bounce back with wins.
They have now opened up a 9 ½-game lead over the Phillies, 11 ½ over the Nationals, 13 ½ over the Marlins and 15 over the Mets.
The talent says this is real. The offense has been among the best in baseball and passes the eye test. Chris Sale is the ace and Spencer Strider is back from injury, while Bryce Elder and Martin Pérez have helped make it a deeper rotation than most thought it would be. The back-end of the bullpen is stellar, too, with Raisel Iglesias, Robert Suarez and Dylan Lee looking damn near untouchable most of the time.
Is this thing over already? The odds make it seem so. The Braves are at -1000 to take the East, while the Phillies are +575. No one else is shorter than +2800.
Verdict: We can't say it's over. The Braves came back from 10 ½ games down on June 1 in 2022 to win the division. The Guardians last season came from 15 ½ back in July to win the AL Central. There are just too many games left and too much stuff could happen. The Phillies and Braves play head-to-head 10 times in September and the Phillies have actually been one game better than the Braves since April 26 (23-10 to the Braves' 22-11).
I don't think the Phillies will be 10 games better than the Braves the rest of the way, so I do think the Braves win the NL East. It is definitely not "over," though.
The Cubs' early run was a fluke
The Cubs' sequencing this season is among the most extreme baseball history has ever seen -- at least with the caveat of how quickly it all happened. They started 7-9, won 10 in a row, lost three in a row, won 10 in a row and have since been terrible. You could divide it up more easily into three sections:
- 7-9 (mediocre)
- 20-3 (all-time great)
- 5-18 (historically bad)
After the great stretch, the Cubs were 27-12 and looked like one of the best teams in baseball. Since then, they have been the worst team in baseball by record.
At 32-30, the Cubs' overall record says they are a playoff contender. But if you actually break it down, the Cubs were only a good team for a 23-game sample. On either side of that, we've seen 39 games of either not very good or terrible. One side outweighs the other.
Plus, this team has major starting pitching issues with Cade Horton's season-ending injury, Justin Steele's setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and Shota Imanaga falling apart. Matthew Boyd's return could help, but he's hardly a sure thing and can't solve everything.
In a tough division, maybe the Cubs just aren't very good and that earlier run of success was a fluke.
Verdict: I have serious, serious concerns. There are two things that give me pause in writing them off. First, during this awful stretch, they've been absolutely atrocious in hitting with runners on base. They are still getting them on base, though. They're still fifth in the majors in OBP. Second, the Cubs have played the toughest schedule in baseball. Their next four series come against the Giants and Rockies (two apiece) -- that is exactly the schedule that got the Diamondbacks hot recently -- before getting the disappointing Blue Jays in Wrigley and then heading to Citi Field to face the Mets.
Check back on this one on June 26 when the Cubs head to Milwaukee.
The Mariners have righted the ship, now control AL West
The defending AL West champs got off to a terrible start this season and the issues generally extended through May 24, when a loss dropped them to 25-29. They've since won eight of nine and have taken a two-game lead in the AL West. The rotation got a shot in the arm when Luis Castillo moved to long reliever and Bryce Miller has looked good in his starts, while Emerson Hancock is having a breakout season. The main issue for the offense has been the disappearance of Cal Raleigh even before he got hurt, but he's expected to return from injury soon. Maybe the time off will help shake some things loose.
The team that made it to Game 7 of the ALCS last season was a big favorite to win the AL West this year. After a brief hangover, they've gotten things going again and look like the best team in a relatively weak division.
Verdict: Put it this way, if you don't believe in the Mariners, who do you believe in for the AL West title? We can safely eliminate the Angels. Do you believe in this Athletics team long-term? How about the Rangers? Maybe the Astros? They are five games out. Will they be five games better the rest of the way than the Mariners?
Gimme the Mariners. It's definitely not "over," but I don't think it's an overreaction to look at what is happening right now in this division and believe that things are settling in for them. Sure enough, they are favorites at -225 with the Rangers (+300), A's (+750) and Astros (+1100) following.
Paul Skenes will not repeat as NL Cy Young winner
First things first, Skenes hasn't been bad. Anyone who says otherwise is ignorant and not worth your time. He has a 3.09 ERA (136 ERA+) and 0.91 WHIP (second in the NL) in 70 innings (10th in NL) with 82 strikeouts (third).
In fact, if he were in the American League, he'd still be the frontrunner to start the All-Star Game and win the Cy Young. The National League Cy Young field is absurd right now, though, starting with Cristopher Sánchez and his 50+ scoreless inning streak, 1.46 ERA, 103 strikeouts vs. 17 walks in 86 ⅓ innings and MLB-best 4.7 WAR.
Paul Skenes PIT • SP • #30 ERA3.09WHIP.91IP70BB13K82 View Profile Chase Burns, Jacob Misiorowski, Kyle Harrison, Chris Sale and some dude you might have heard of named Shohei Ohtani are all pitching like Cy Young winners right now. They trail Sánchez, yet sit in front of Skenes. Skenes' teammate Braxton Ashcraft and a few others (Max Meyer of the Marlins, Eduardo Rodríguez of the Diamondbacks) could also be in front of Skenes while Zack Wheeler is showing he can make up ground after getting a late start.
This is a monster field. You could make an argument Skenes should finish 10th or below if voting for a Cy Young were held right now.
Is the proper conclusion that Skenes -- despite being a heavy favorite entering the season -- will not win the Cy Young? The odds have three in front of him:
- Sánchez, +120
- Misiorowski, +180
- Ohtani, +425
- Skenes, +750
- Sale, +900
- Burns, +2200
There's an Ohtani tax in there, which is to say that a bunch of people will bet on Ohtani due to familiarity or even rooting for him to win it, but there's also a Skenes tax in there thanks to his massive fame. To see him down to +750 shows how good so many others have been.
Verdict: If you were to ask me to take either Skenes or the field, I'd take the field. But if you looked at the odds above and said pick one guy, given the odds, man, it's awfully tough not to take him. I still love Misiorowski and Sánchez has built a decent lead here. Ohtani seems determined. Sale is building a Hall of Fame case and we know he can deal with the workload.
For this "overreaction," though, there's plenty of runway for Skenes. He likely has 19 starts left and probably won't have to deal with pitching in the All-Star Game again (he'll make the team, but since he's started two years in a row, he'll be one of the guys who doesn't pitch).
Skenes is absolutely not done in this race.
The Mets are cooked
The Mets are 27-35 with a -13 run differential. The only NL teams with a worse record are the Giants and Rockies. They are 28th in batting average and 29th in OPS. Every time they've looked like they were turning a corner, they started to lose again. Most recently, they won four in a row to close out the month of May, but then lost two straight to open a tough road trip. Remember a few weeks ago, when they won six of seven and took a series from the Yankees? They were staring at a manageable upcoming schedule. They then lost seven of eight.
It's been a 62-game sample. The team just is what it is at this point, right?
Verdict: Maybe. Maybe we should also say "not so fast."
The Mets will absolutely not win the NL East. Let's be clear on that.
They are, however, only six games out of the last wild-card spot. How many teams above the Mets in this race can you count on being good the rest of the way from this bunch: Padres, Cardinals, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Cubs, Reds, Nationals, Marlins?
Maybe the Phillies? I guess, maybe, possibly the Cubs? I don't know, man, this sure looks like a wide-open field.
Remember, the Mets have done this before. Not this exact group, but in 2024, the Mets were 28-37 and had a better record than only two other NL teams through June 11. They ended up in the NLCS.
Francisco Lindor should be returning within the next few weeks and Bo Bichette is too good a hitter to keep being this terrible. There are plenty of question marks around the rest of the roster, but a good version of Bichette, along with Lindor and the always awesome Juan Soto means the offense is a threat to turn things around. You could talk yourself into good second-half production from the likes of Jorge Polanco and Marcus Semien, too.
Do I believe in this team? Nah. They might be able to pass the Nationals and Marlins from that list of wild-card contenders above, but I'd take all the others to stay in front of the Mets. The hole the Mets have dug for themselves is quite deep.
I'm just saying it would be foolish to 100% write them off. We've seen far stranger things.
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