MLB MVP predictions for 2026: Best bets and longshots for AL and NL

Can anyone dethrone Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani? We've got best bets for both the American League and National League MVP awards

There are but a handful of certainties in life -- death, taxes, and Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani winning MVP awards. At least one of the two superstars have claimed an MVP award following each MLB season since the 2021 campaign. They've both won in each of the last two seasons. Ohtani has an argument for being the single most talented player ever, and Judge was built in a lab to pulverize baseballs, so this isn't exactly a surprising development. But it's also made preseason MVP award predictions, as well as betting on the MVP race, a bit boring. 

Judge and Ohtani are once again the favorites to win each league's MVP award, but does that make them the best betting options? Is there better value with other players? Below, we've identified best bets for each league's MVP award, as well as two longshots and two players to fade. All odds are from DraftKings.

Bet on MLB futures and more at DraftKings:

AL best bet: Bobby Witt Jr. (+500)

A player's MVP case is always strengthened if they can power their team to a playoff spot. The Kansas City Royals have been trendy picks to claim the AL Central for a few seasons now, but this is the year it could actually happen. The Detroit Tigers added an impressive piece in Framber Valdez and will welcome infielder Kevin McGonigle, one of the top prospects in baseball, to the Show. But even with Valdez in the fold and McGonigle entering the fray, do the Tigers really have the offensive firepower to beat out the Royals? Full seasons of Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone (who looked good at the World Baseball Classic) will help K.C.'s case, and Isaac Collins could prove to be a sneaky good addition.

Then, of course, there's Bobby Witt himself. A true five-tool player, Witt should be entering his prime in his age-26 season. There may be even more power to unlock in his bat, and if he gets the Royals to a division title, he'll get serious MVP consideration.

The biggest road block here is, naturally, Aaron Judge. The greatest slugger of his generation, Judge has only seemed to get better with age. We'll need a bit of a stumble (or a prolonged injury) from the best right-handed hitter since Albert Pujols for Witt to get over the line. But this is baseball we're talking about -- stranger things have happened. And from a betting perspective, Witt is worth a sprinkle.

NL best bet: Juan Soto (+1100)

Let's get this out of the way -- Shohei Ohtani is a ridiculous -150 favorite to win NL MVP at DraftKings, and rightfully so. The most talented baseball player of all time will be both pitching and hitting for the best team in the sport this year, and should probably be viewed as the penciled-in MVP until a shocking dip in performance or a long-term injury prevents him from being so. But in the event Ohtani does miss a chunk of time (he'll be pitching again this year and has a history of arm trouble), who is best positioned to step into the void?

That would be Juan Soto, who somehow went under the radar in his first year in Queens despite finishing third in MVP balloting. A noticeably slow start (which was lambasted in the loud New York media) likely contributed to the narrative that Soto underperformed, but on the whole Soto still managed a 156 wRC+ -- he was 56% better than league average at the plate, for the uninitiated. 

The less said about his defense the better, but Soto remains a monster with the bat. If he performs like himself right out of the gate and keeps it up into October, he'll be in contention for the MVP award ... if Ohtani misses time. Or, perhaps, is abducted by aliens. It's going to be hard to dethrone the best player in the sport.

Click here to get started at BetMGM and place your MLB bets:

AL longshot: Nick Kurtz (+1500)

What Nick Kurtz accomplished in his rookie season was downright scary. In just 117 games, he launched 36 homers (including four in one game, and he narrowly missed a fifth), knocked in 90 runs and hit a hilarious .290/.383/.619. He immediately established himself as one of the preeminent sluggers in the sport, and with the A's still marooned in their minor-league launching pad in Sacramento, he'll have plenty of chances to keep hitting bombs. 

The sophomore slump cliche doesn't scare me here. First basemen are rarely first-round picks these days, but the A's took Kurtz fourth overall for a reason -- he's a born hitter. He is the centerpiece of this offense moving forward, and if John Fisher's merry band of exiled sluggers mash their way to the playoffs, he'll be a driving force. I expect Kurtz to start the All-Star Game, and I expect him to get MVP votes again after he finished 12th last year. He could just win the thing this time with a full season's worth of plate appearances.

NL longshot: Paul Skenes (+2800)

A full-time starting pitcher (read: not Ohtani) hasn't won an MVP since 2014, when Clayton Kershaw rampaged his way through the NL with a 1.77 ERA. It takes a special effort like that, along with a relative down year from the league's hitters, to earn a pitcher an MVP. For example, even with how good Tarik Skubal has been in his back-to-back Cy Young Award campaigns, he's only finished seventh and fifth in the balloting.

If anyone's going to pull it off, it's Skenes. The young phenom is only getting better, and he'll also have the narrative factor on his side if the Pirates manage to stumble into the playoffs, as some prognosticators are projecting them to do. Pittsburgh's pitching staff is excellent, and the team added a few bats (for once). Throw in a potential gangbusters rookie campaign from rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin, the consensus top prospect in the sport, and Skenes could sweep the hardware if he turns in a monster campaign and gets the Pirates back into the playoffs. 

Bet on baseball and more at Fanatics Sportsbook:

AL fade: Cal Raleigh (+1100)

With all due respect to the Big Dumper, it's hard to imagine him replicating his ridiculous 2025 season. Cal Raleigh should still be one of the best backstops in the game and will be central to whatever degree of success the Mariners enjoy this season -- and a return to the playoffs should be the bare minimum expectation in Seattle -- but I'd be flabbergasted if he put up another 60-homer season. I'd be floored if he hit 50 again. Raleigh is still a worthy centerpiece for a playoff contender, but MVP-level catchers are rare for a reason.

NL fade: Shohei Ohtani (-150)

As I explained above, Ohtani is the best player in baseball and will be the presumptive favorite for at least the next four or five NL MVP awards. But I just can't get behind betting on him at this -150 price. 

It's a ridiculous price for an MVP future. For example, Aaron Judge is +200 to win the AL award, and he's won three of the last four. A minus price for an awards future is bonkers, and yet it's hard to quibble with it in Ohtani's case. 

I just can't seriously endorse investing at that price. There's more value to be had with an option like Soto. But yes, barring injury or his talent being stolen by the MonStars, I expect Ohtani to win.