MLB hot seat rankings: Six managers whose jobs could already be on the line in 2026

Whether they're newcomers or veterans, some of these managers can't afford early missteps

One of the more unfortunate subplots of each Major League Baseball is which managers may be most imperiled from the outset. That's the hot seat, in the parlance of such things.

As the 2026 season is in the offing, it's time to ponder these grim matters. It would of course be shocking if any of these skippers meet the ax early in the campaign to come, but when the in-season firings do begin later in the summer then it figures to be one of these names who begins the carnage. Now let's have a look at the current MLB managers who are most likely to not survive the 2026 season. It's worth noting that this particular preseason hot seat list isn't, in most instances, an obvious one filled with likely outcomes. That's because of the relatively high number of new managerial hires across MLB. We'll do our best, though, and proceed in thrilling, state-of-the-art alphabetical order.

Seats of heat! Sizzle, sizzle!

Aaron Boone, Yankees

Boone's a tidy 200 games over .500 as Yankees manager and he's guided them to the playoffs in seven of his eight seasons. He also claimed the pennant in 2024. To undermine his inclusion even further, Boone's signed through 2027 and squarely aligned with GM Brian Cashman's vision. That said, he's never won the World Series, and the current title drought in the Bronx -- they haven't hoisted the trophy since 2009 -- is vast by the standards of MLB's flagship franchise. If the Yankees somewhat surprisingly tumble down the American League East standings during the course of the 2026 season, then perhaps Boone could find himself in danger. It's not likely, but we'll note the possibility.

Joe Espada, Astros

In no way does Espada deserve this, as he deftly guided a flawed and injured roster to contention in 2025. That said, changes may be afoot in Houston thanks to the fact that they missed the playoffs this past season and got bounced in the first round via sweep in Espada's first year on the job. As well, GM Dana Brown may himself be in danger, and that would mean Espada is too. Owner Jim Crane's inconsistent spending and seeming distaste for continuity are the real culprits, but owners famously never fire themselves. Espada seems like a manager who would get another opportunity pretty swiftly if Houston does indeed cut bait.

Mark Kotsay, Athletics

Kotsay seems safe as A's brass continue to pretend the move to Las Vegas is an inevitability, and he's signed through 2028 with an option for 2029. That latter nugget makes a firing in 2026 highly unlikely. That said, it's hard to ignore the fact that Kotsay is 255-293 (.394) in four seasons as A's manager. While there's a soft positive trajectory in place -- 112 losses in 2023 to 93 in 2024 to 86 last year -- that momentum needs to be sustained, especially given the "active by John Fisher standards" offseason. If the A's stumble to a terrible first couple of months in 2026, then maybe a change in the dugout will become a realistic possibility.

Carlos Mendoza, Mets

Mendoza is probably the manager most at risk going into the 2026 season. His contract includes an option for 2027, which means it's not guaranteed beyond the upcoming season. Most essentially, Mendoza and Mets are coming off a deeply disappointing 2025 campaign in which they finished just four games above .500 and went 21-32 from Aug. 1 onward to tumble out of playoff position. Speculation about Mendoza's status -- and even the status of lead exec David Stearns -- ensued. Mendoza survived that collapse, but he's very much on notice at the outset in 2026. The hiring of Kai Correa, who briefly served as Giants interim manager in 2023, as the new bench coach means a ready-made replacement is already on staff. All signs point to "danger" for Mendoza. 

Kurt Suzuki, Angels

Suzuki, who has yet to manage a regular-season game? Yeah, why not? This one's a long shot, to be sure, but it's worth mentioning the possibility that things cascade out in Orange County this season. The Halos seem hellbent for last place in the AL West, a spot they occupied in 2024 and last season. Elsewhere, GM Perry Minasian, who hired Suzuki, is in the final guaranteed year of his contract and he seems to be very much in danger. A Minasian dismissal might lead to a wider shakeup, and that could endanger Suzuki, who's on a one-year deal. Suzuki is also very much untested as a manager, which raises the possibility that it won't go well even by the recent standards of the Angels. Owner Arte Moreno seems to operate without much of a plan or a prevailing vision, so why not fire a manager before he's even a full season into his tenure?

Rob Thomson, Phillies

Thomson and his steady hand have piloted the Phillies to four playoff berths in as many seasons, two straight division titles, and a pennant in 2022. That said, the core is aging and there's a bit of a staleness surrounding the organization as Dave Dombrowski's laudably consistent efforts to maintain a winning roster may have reached their upper limits. Will all this mean danger for a manager who's won 58% of his games? That's possible, especially if multiple key Phillies start showing their age all at once. The opening months of the 2026 season could be critical for Thomson, who's inked through 2027.