We've got three prop picks on the MLB leaders in home runs, hits and steals for the 2026 season
By Nick Stellini Mar 20, 2026 at 8:45 am ET • 2 min read
Imagn Images The menu of MLB futures bets offered by top sportsbooks extends beyond end-of-season awards and eventual World Series winners. Bettors can also make picks on who they think will lead the sport in certain statistical categories and here, we'll look at picks to lead in home runs, hits and stolen bases. To be clear, these bets can be something of a crapshoot, so be mindful of how much you're wagering on these props -- they should be viewed more as supplemental bets rather than major investments. I've also tried to stay away from the usual suspects at the top of the odds board, because where's the value in betting on Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani to hit the most home runs?
So with all that being said, here are my picks for three offensive stat props for the 2026 MLB season. All odds are from DraftKings.
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MLB home runs leader: Kyle Schwarber (+800)
The third option on the board behind Judge and Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber is one of baseball's premier power hitters and has been for a while now. His power plays anywhere but playing his home games in Philadelphia only improves his output, as was the case last year when he launched a career-high 56 bombs. That would have been enough for the MLB lead if not for Cal Raleigh going nuclear with 60 homers.
Schwarber is as cheap as he is in part because of those 56 homers, and it's not a number we should expect him to equal -- his next best output was 47 homers in 2023. But if he can get into the high 40s or even the low 50s, it could be enough to get the job done. Schwarber isn't a particularly creative pick here, but the easy launching power in his bat is so special and he's showing no signs of slowing down. Given the short prices for Judge and Ohtani (+350 and +400, respectively), give me Schwarber.
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MLB hits leader: Gunnar Henderson (+1800)
It was a down 2025 season for Gunnar Henderson, but I'm expecting a major bounce back in 2026. The Orioles shortstop looked as locked in as any American hitter at the World Baseball Classic and with Pete Alonso's arrival in Baltimore, Henderson won't be shouldering all of the pressure to make the offense click. We saw what an MVP-level Henderson looks like in 2024, but I think there's even more in the tank. He tallied 177 hits in that 2024 campaign, and Bobby Witt Jr. led the league with 184 last year. To be fair, Witt got 211 to lead the league in 2024 but there's some room for Henderson to get there, especially if he avoids the second-half decline he displayed in 2024. This is a bit of a longshot pick, but the value here is great.
MLB steals leader: Chandler Simpson (+450)
One of the fastest players in the sport, Simpson swiped 44 bags in just 109 games. He could have led the league if he'd gotten enough playing time to qualify. The speedster should get more games this season and if he can continue to steal at a high rate, he's more than capable of snagging 50 or more. Simpson is the second favorite behind Elly De La Cruz so we're not getting a ton of value here, but this feels like the right move.
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