If Wednesday's matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs is any indication, the race down the stretch to win the National League MVP Award will be a wild, back-and-forth drag race.
The award is almost certainly down to four-time MVP Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers and Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs, and on Wednesday, those two put on a show at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Both players homered twice in a game eventually won by the Cubs, 7-6.
And, for the first time this season, Ohtani no longer is the futures betting favorite to win the MVP. That title belongs to Crow-Armstrong, who has overtaken the two-way star at many of the best sports betting apps.
The young outfielder is as short as -130 at Caesars Sportsbook to Ohtani's +100. FanDuel Sportsbook, however, has both players at -110.
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National League MVP betting odds
SportsbooksPete Crow-Armstrong MVP oddsShohei Ohtani MVP oddsCaesars
-130
+100
FanDuel
-110
-110
DraftKings
-120
+100
BetMGM
-120
+100
bet365
-115
-105
With less than two months remaining in the regular season, who has the edge in the MVP race? That would be the Cubs outfielder.
Certainly the case for Ohtani is strong. He leads the NL in OPS (.954), ranks sixth in home runs (26) and batting average (.297) and ninth in RBI (70). On the mound, Ohtani is 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP, though he hasn't pitched since July 3 because of inflammation in his left knee.
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He is doing this for a Dodgers team that has built an eight-game lead in the NL West and leads all of baseball in run differential (+140).
The allure of plus-money on Ohtani, who has won four MVPs (two in each league) all unanimously, is understandable for those interested in MLB betting on this award race.
But his hitting stats -- specifically home runs, RBI, OPS and slugging -- are down significantly from the otherworldly level we've seen from him the last three years. That wouldn't normally be a problem because his pitching has been so good, but there is no timetable for Ohtani to return to the mound. And with the Dodgers' acquisition of Tarik Skubal and an already loaded starting staff, there is no need to rush Ohtani back into the rotation.
In addition, there is also the possibility that MVP voters will suffer from a case of Ohtani fatigue. Just like NBA MVP voters did not cast their ballot for Michael Jordan every season, Ohtani could encounter the same issue, especially in a year when his numbers are down and there's another strong candidate in Crow-Armstrong.
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PCA is in the midst of a career-best season. He ranks third in the NL in OPS (.938), fourth in on-base percentage (.386), sixth in home runs (26) and 10th in RBI (69). Since May 30, he has been even better, batting .348 with 20 home runs and 45 RBI for a Cubs team that is second in the NL Central and has been rising up the World Series odds board.
However, defense is likely to be the difference in the MVP voting if Crow-Armstrong wins the award. A Gold Glove winner last year, PCA is the best defensive player in all of baseball. He leads all players with a FanGraphs defensive rating of 21.4. For comparison, the next best defender is Tigers catcher Dillon Dingler at 18.6, while the next best outfielder is the Red Sox' Ceddanne Rafaela, at 10.3.
The combination of Crow-Armstrong's prowess at the plate and skills in the outfield combine to give him a MLB-best WAR of 7.3. Ohtani is second at 6.4.
The winner of the award will be determined down the stretch. The Dodgers have a much easier remaining strength of schedule (.492, 22nd in the majors) than the Cubs (.521, second). But that could both work against Ohtani and for PCA. While Los Angeles will be largely be playing meaningless games before the playoffs, Chicago will be in the thick of the playoff chase every night.
Come October, PCA could be known by another three-letter acronym.
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