Derek CartyMar 30, 2026, 08:18 AM ETClose- Derek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.
All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Nico Hoerner | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+118) Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.82 EV One reason to bet this: My projection system ranks Wrigley Field as the fourth-worst venue in MLB for boosting offensive stats to RHB. Hoerner (2-for-11) has started the season slowly at the plate.
Ernie Clement | UNDER 0.5 H (+191) Projection: 39% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.20 EV One reason to bet this: My projections see the Rogers Centre as the No. 7 venue in MLB for suppressing BABIP to RHB.
Andres Gimenez | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (-123) Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.77 EV One reason to bet this: Despite a hot start (6-for-11) for Gimenez, note that among all parks, the eighth-tallest fence height (on average) is at the Rogers Centre, which tends to suppress offense.
Foster Griffin | UNDER 2.5 ER (-124) Projection: 74% chance of this bet hitting, with a $40.82 EV One reason to bet this: The weather forecast calls for the third-most suitable pitching weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Chase Burns | UNDER 6.5 K (+121) Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.22 EV One reason to bet this: In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts the fifth-most favorable hitting conditions on Monday's slate.
Ranger Suarez | OVER 4.5 K (+110) Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.75 EV One reason to bet this: My projections say that the No. 4 stadium in MLB for boosting strikeouts is Minute Maid Park.
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year's play.
Minnesota Twins Game Total UNDER: Game total in Twins games have gone under in nine straight contests. (+9.00 Units / 92% ROI). Current odds: 9.5 @ -108
Toronto Blue Jays 1st 5 Innings (F5) Team Total OVER: Toronto's run output has hit this over in 15 of the team's last 20 games. (+9.15 Units / 38% ROI). Current odds: 2.5 @ -135
Washington Nationals Moneyline: The Nationals have won this bet in three of their last five road games. (+4.30 Units / 86% ROI). Current odds: +144
St. Louis Cardinals 1st 5 Innings (F5) Team Total UNDER: St. Louis has failed to surpass this total in 11 of its last 15 home games. (+7.35 Units / 38% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ +114
