We're still months away from the Aug. 3 MLB trade deadline, but the New York Yankees are getting maybe the biggest in-season upgrade any team will have this year on Friday. The Yanks get their ace, Gerrit Cole, back for Friday's series opener against the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium. Cole, 35, missed all of 2025 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and is set for his long-awaited return to the hill for New York. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET.
Cole now joins a Yankees team that has a stellar pitching staff already, headlined by Cam Schlittler, who may very well be the frontrunner for the Cy Young Award in the American League. Cole's return also comes at a great time as Max Fried is on the injured list after a stellar beginning to 2026.
Cole last pitched in Game 5 of the 2024 World Series, where he was cruising up until the fifth inning. A misplayed fly ball by Aaron Judge in center field, a misplay at shortstop by Anthony Volpe and Cole not covering first base on a ground ball to the right side all contributed to an inning from hell, and the Yankees found themselves tied after leading 5-0. They'd lose that game 7-6, and the Dodgers won the World Series as a result. Cole then underwent Tommy John surgery in early 2025, which came after he missed nearly three months with elbow discomfort to begin 2024.
So what can we expect from Cole in his first start in nearly two years? We'll look at Cole's MLB player props for the Yankees' matchup with the Rays, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Additionally, DraftKings has two special season-long markets for Cole's 2026 campaign that we'll dive into and share our MLB betting recommendations for. Use the DraftKings promo code and get $100 in bonus bets after wagering $5 or more with your first bet:
Top Gerrit Cole props for Rays vs. Yankees (odds via DraftKings)
- Over 4.5 strikeouts (-157)
- Under 16.5 total outs (+100)
- Over 1.5 earned runs allowed (-141)
Cole worked up to 86 pitches in his final rehab start, so a pitch count of around 90 would make a lot of sense given it's his first MLB start since October 2024. Cole doesn't exactly get the softest landing spot as the Rays are 33-15 -- the best mark in the American League. Tampa ranks eighth in runs scored, so we'll take the Over on Cole's runs allowed prop line of 1.5. And given the combination of Tampa Bay being a tough team that New York is trying to catch and Cole's usage being closely monitored, the Under on 16.5 outs feels like the play, with five innings seeming like a good starting point for Cole's 2026 campaign.
The Rays enter Friday with the fewest team strikeouts in MLB, but this is Cole we're talking about. His line is set at 4.5 and averaging a strikeout per inning, even against a contact-heavy Tampa lineup, should be in play, especially as Cole should be amped up for his season debut.
Gerrit Cole season-long betting specials (odds via DraftKings)
- Over 118.5 strikeouts (-115)
- Under 3.85 ERA (-125)
Cole's first start of the year will be Game 52 for the Yankees, so New York has 110 games remaining after Friday's series opener against the Rays. That means if if Cole does indeed start every fifth game for the Yankees, he should start somewhere between 20 and 22 games this year. That's important to note for this season-long strikeout special at DraftKings as the line is set at 118.5 strikeouts for the rest of the regular season.
If Cole makes 20 total starts, he's need to average roughly six strikeouts per outing to get Over this line. Considering Cole owns a career 10.4 K/9 mark and averaged 9.4 K/9 in 2024, that hardly seems out of the question. If Cole averages a strikeout per inning this year, he's essentially need to average six innings per start, which is right in line with his career average. Cole struck out roughly a batter an inning during his six rehab appearances this year. The Yankees clearly took their time in making sure Cole is as close to his pre-surgery health as can be, and one thing we know about Cole is he can punch tickets with the best of them.
As for his season-long ERA, a line of 3.85 seems incredibly high considering the standout right-hander hasn't had an ERA worse than that since 2017 when he was a member of the Pirates. Since then, his worst ERA mark was 3.50 in 2022 with the Yankees. Even in an injury-shortened 2024 campaign, Cole's ERA was still 3.41. There's more juice on the Over here but Cole is a proven stud who simply doesn't give up many runs. It'd be surprising to see him finish 2026 with an ERA north of 3.85.
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