Michigan vs. Saint Louis odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 second-round matchup on Saturday

The ninth-seeded Saint Louis Billikens clash with the top-seeded Michigan Wolverines in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region on Saturday. Saint Louis advanced with a convincing 102-77 win over eighth-seeded Georgia on Thursday, while Michigan cruised to a 101-80 win over 16th-seeded Howard. Both teams rank in the top 11 nationally in scoring offense, while they both also rank in the top 70 defensively, giving up fewer than 70 points per game. 

Tipoff from KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y., is set for 12:10 p.m. ET. The Wolverines are 12.5-point favorites in the latest Saint Louis vs. Michigan odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 161.5. Before making any Michigan vs. Saint Louis picks, check out the Saint Louis vs. Michigan predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. 

Now, the model has simulated Saint Louis vs. Michigan 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Michigan vs. Saint Louis:

Saint Louis vs. Michigan spread:    

Michigan -12.5

Saint Louis vs. Michigan over/under:    

161.5 points

Saint Louis vs. Michigan money line:    

Michigan -901, Saint Louis +591

Saint Louis vs. Michigan picks:    

Saint Louis vs. Michigan TV:

CBS

Top Saint Louis vs. Michigan predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Saint Louis vs. Michigan, SportsLine's model is going Under on the total (161.5 points). The Under has hit in six of the last 10 Saint Louis games, and in six of the last nine Michigan games. These teams have almost identical scoring defense numbers, and if they play closer to their averages, this game very well could end up in the 140s or 150s. 

The model projects the Billikens to have four players score 10.6 points or more, including Robbie Avila, who is projected to score 14.5 points. The Wolverines are projected to have five players score 10.1 points or more, led by Yaxel Lendeborg, who is projected to score 17.1 points. The model is projecting 160 combined points as the Under hits 53% of the time. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Michigan vs. Saint Louis picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Michigan vs. Saint Louis 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Michigan vs. Saint Louis, and which side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Saint Louis vs. Michigan spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.