Michigan vs. Alabama odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 Sweet 16 matchup on Friday

The fourth-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide battle the top-seeded Michigan Wolverines in a 2026 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Sweet 16 matchup on Friday. Alabama is coming off a 90-65 win over Texas Tech on Sunday in the second round, while Michigan defeated Saint Louis 95-72 on Saturday. The Crimson Tide (25-9) finished tied for second in the SEC at 13-5. The Wolverines (33-3) won the Big Ten regular-season title at 19-1. Alabama has ruled out guard Aden Holloway (suspension), while L.J. Cason (knee) is out for Michigan.

Tipoff from the United Center in Chicago is set for 7:35 p.m. ET. Michigan is an 8.5-point favorite in the latest Alabama vs. Michigan odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 172.5. Before making any Michigan vs. Alabama picks, check out the Alabama vs. Michigan predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Sweet 16 on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks.

Now, the model has simulated Alabama vs. Michigan 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Michigan vs. Alabama:

Alabama vs. Michigan spread:    

Michigan -8.5

Alabama vs. Michigan over/under:    

172.5 points

Alabama vs. Michigan money line:    

Michigan -472, Alabama +355

Alabama vs. Michigan picks:    

Alabama vs. Michigan TV:

TBS

Top Alabama vs. Michigan predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Alabama vs. Michigan, SportsLine's model is going Under on the total (172.5 points). The Under hit in the last meeting between the schools. The Under has also hit in four of the last seven Alabama games, and in six of the past 10 Michigan games. Alabama is 5-5 against the spread in its last 10 games. Michigan, meanwhile, is 2-8 ATS in its last 10.

The model projects the Crimson Tide to have four players score 10 points or more, including Labaron Philon, who is projected to score 18.4 points. The Wolverines are projected to have seven players score 9.9 points or more, led by Yaxel Lendeborg, who is projected to score 18.2 points. The model is projecting 169 combined points as the Under clears in 63% of simulations. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Michigan vs. Alabama picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Alabama vs. Michigan 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits in nearly 70% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Michigan vs. Alabama, and which side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Alabama vs. Michigan spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.