Michigan State vs. UConn odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 Sweet 16 matchup on Friday

The third-seeded Michigan State Spartans battle the second-seeded UConn Huskies in a 2026 NCAA Tournament East Region Sweet 16 matchup on Friday. Michigan State is coming off a 77-69 win over Louisville on Saturday in the second round, while UConn defeated UCLA 73-57 on Sunday. The Spartans (27-7), who tied for second in the Big Ten at 15-5, have won two in a row. The Huskies (31-5), who came in second in the Big East at 17-3, have also won two straight. 

Tipoff from the Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C., is set for 9:45 p.m. ET. The Huskies are 1.5-point favorite in the latest UConn vs. Michigan State odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 134.5. Before making any Michigan State vs. UConn picks, check out the Michigan State vs. UConn predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Sweet 16 on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks.

Now, the model has simulated Michigan State vs. UConn 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for UConn vs. Michigan State:

Michigan State vs. UConn spread:    

UConn -1.5

Michigan State vs. UConn over/under:    

134.5 points

Michigan State vs. UConn money line:    

UConn -125, Michigan State +105

Michigan State vs. UConn picks:    

Michigan State vs. UConn TV:

CBS

Top Michigan State vs. UConn predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Michigan State vs. UConn, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (134.5 points). The over has hit in four of the last five games for the Spartans. In total, 17 of the past 19 Michigan State games have resulted in at least 139 combined points. 

The model projects the Spartans to have four players score 10 points or more, including Jeremy Fears Jr, who is projected to score 14.4 points. The Huskies are projected to have five players score 11 points or more, led by Alex Karaban, who is projected to score 14.8 points. The model is projecting 146 combined points as the Over clears in 79% of simulations. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Michigan State vs. UConn picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Michigan State vs. UConn 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Michigan State vs. UConn, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Michigan State vs. UConn spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.