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The marquee race for the Democratic Senate nod in Michigan was too close to call early Wednesday morning, stretching out a primary race that’s spotlit Democrats’ fight for the future of the party.
Abdul El-Sayed was leading Rep. Haley Stevens (D) by roughly 2 points as of 2 am EDT, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).
The Michigan Senate race is perhaps this cycle’s biggest front in the battle for the direction of the Democratic Party, after its far-left faction notched notable primary wins and ousted some longtime lawmakers earlier this year.
Though some in the party are looking to progressive or democratic socialist figures for new leadership after the party’s 2024 losses, mainstream Democrats fret that candidates like El-Sayed will be tough sells to general election voters in November’s midterms.
Meanwhile, Tuesday’s primaries solidified matchups in several must-win House races in Michigan, Virginia and Washington. And President Trump’s preferred candidates cleared their primaries in closely watched races for governor in Kansas and Michigan, where the sitting Democratic governors are being termed out.
Here are five takeaways from Tuesday’s primary elections:
Marquee Michigan Senate race too close to call
In Michigan, El-Sayed was leading the Democratic Senate primary with 49 percent to Stevens’s 47 percent, as of 2 a.m. EDT.
Mallory McMorrow, who suspended her campaign in early July amid low polling numbers, had notably pulled in 4 percent of the vote.
The winner will take on Rep. Mike Rogers (R), the Trump-backed Republican nominee who narrowly lost the 2024 Senate election to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and was unopposed in the GOP contest.
Stevens told supporters that she was “feeling good” about the race as she acknowledged the vote count could continue into Wednesday.
“We knew that this was going to be a close race. And that’s exactly what we’ve got,” Stevens said just before 1 a.m. EDT.
El-Sayed also acknowledged that it “takes a long time to count some votes in Michigan,” but turned attention toward the general as he railed against Rogers.
“Whatever happens tonight, we have a responsibility to assure that we unite to make sure that Mike Rogers never sees the inside of the U.S. Senate,” he said.
The Michigan Senate seat, being vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D), is a must-win for both parties in the high-stakes fight for the upper chamber.
Cook Political Report rates it a “toss up” contest. DDHQ predicts that it leans toward Democrats – but, if Republicans win this race, they jump to an 86 percent chance of holding the Senate.
“If Democrats are going to find a path to a majority, they cannot afford to lose Michigan,” DDHQ’s chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley told The Hill last month.
Democratic infighting over future on display
Tuesday night’s most closely watched primaries put a spotlight on Democratic infighting over the future of a party still grappling with major losses in the last presidential race.
With fewer than 100 days before the midterms, Democrats are favored to win the House and slight underdogs in the fight for the Senate, according to DDHQ’s forecasts. They’re poised to benefit from the historic trend that shows the party out of power gaining ground in a midterm year, while Republicans are plagued by voter woes around the economy and the Iran war.
But Democrats are divided over the best way forward to recapture power in Washington. High-profile primary wins by Democratic socialist and anti-establishment candidates have energized the party’s far-left faction – but they’ve also sparked centrist concern that the party could be seen as too extreme in the general election.
A handful of races in the Great Lakes State, have given center-left Democrats heartburn as they try to capture voters in the middle and across the aisle in the swing state.
In the battleground 7th Congressional District, Will Lawrence, the co-founder of the Sunrise Movement, who is projected to win the Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. Tom Barrett after two moderate candidates split the primary vote.
The night’s biggest test of party direction, the Democratic Senate primary, was still too close to call.
AIPAC’s big bet in limbo
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) has loomed large over the midterms, particularly in Democratic contests, and the Michigan Senate race has been no exception.
AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project, has spent roughly $25 million to attack Sayed, who has called the humanitarian crisis playing out in Gaza a genocide and is critical of U.S. aid to Israel – and support Stevens, who disputes that characterization of Israel’s actions in Gaza and wants U.S. support for Israel to continue.
With the Senate race too close to call on election day, it remains to be seen whether AIPAC’s big bet will pay off.
Over in Missouri, Rep. Wesley Bell (D) fended off a comeback bid from former Rep. Cori Bush (D), a member of the so-called progressive “Squad” on Capitol Hill who was running to retake her seat in the solidly blue 1st Congressional District with support from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
Bell ousted Bush in the 2024 Democratic primary with help from a group aligned with AIPAC, while Bush was a staunch critic of Israel. This cycle, Bush put focus on Bell’s support for Israel amid increased voter criticism over the U.S. handling of the war in Gaza. But it wasn’t enough to push Bell out of her old seat on Tuesday.
Trump picks breeze through primaries as GOP eyes Midwest governor’s mansions
President Trump’s pick for governor easily won the GOP primary for governor in Michigan, where Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is being termed out.
Rep. John James (R-Mich.) is set to square off against Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) — who got a jolt of energy after former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan suspended his independent bid this spiring — in this fall’s fight for the battleground governor’s mansion.
Trump also enjoyed a good night in the Sunflower State where his preferred pick for the governor’s race, state Senate President Ty Masterson, won the Republican primary, defeating six other GOP candidates.
The wins of both James and Masterson offer the president a boost to his endorsement scorecard, particularly since Trump’s gubernatorial picks in Iowa, Georgia and South Carolina lost their primaries. Meanwhile, Trump’s track record around congressional endorsements has remained strong.
Republicans are bullish about their chances of flipping the Kansas governor’s seat since Gov. Laura Kelly (D), a formidable Democrat who’s once twice statewide, is term-limited this cycle. Cook Political Report rates the Kelly’s seat as “lean Republican.”
Meanwhile, the Michigan’s race will be closely watched given Trump won the state in 2016 and 2024 and has endorsed both James and Rogers in gubernatorial and Senate races specifically. A Trump victory would bode well for the president’s legacy and potentially put further pressure on the party to stand in lockstep behind his agenda the last two years of his second term.
But losses in either or both races would offer a blow to the president and raise questions around how close Republicans should align themselves with Trump heading into 2028 and beyond.
Decisive battleground House matchups solidified
Tuesday’s primaries solidified matchups for House races that could tip the scales this fall.
In Virginia Beach, former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria (Va.) is set for a rematch against her GOP successor. The former naval commander is projected to easily win her primary to take on Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans (Va.), who ousted the Democrat from the swing district in 2022. Cook Political Report rates the contest as a toss up.
President Trump won the 2nd Congressional District by less than a percentage point in 2024, while Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) came on top by 8 points in 2025.
Over in Virginia’s 1st Congressional District, which spans the Richmond suburbs to Old Dominion’s Northern Neck, local prosecutor Shannon Taylor is projected to defeat a handful of Democrats for the party’s nod to take Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.) in November.
Trump won Wittman’s district in 2024 by roughly 5 points. Cook Political Report rates the Richmond-area House seat as “lean Republican.”
Barrett represents 7th Congressional District, which went for Trump by just over a point in 2024. Lawrence’s primary win is a boost for Republicans who see him as a weaker candidate in the general. A little-known group called the Michigan Sunrise PAC has spent in the Democratic primary to boost Lawrence and attack Maasdam, according to Punchbowl News.
Trump’s pick fell short in the 8th Congressional District, where Thomas Smith – who’d suspended his campaign last month — defeated Amir Hassan in the GOP primary. Smith faces Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet in the fall.
Another highly competitive matchup was set in Washington state. Incumbent Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) and state Senate Minority leader John Braun (R) advanced from the nonpartisan, top-two primary in the 3rd Congressional District, teeing up a tense toss-up contest after Gluesenkamp Perez won by just 4 points in 2024.
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