Miami vs. Missouri odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 first-round matchup on Friday

The No. 10 seed Missouri Tigers take on the No. 7 seed Miami Hurricanes on Friday in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament in the West Region. As far as location draws go, few teams in the nation could be happier than Missouri. Miami vs. Missouri square off from the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri, which is a little over 100 miles from Missouri's campus. You would expect a Missouri-heavy crowd in this contest, so is that enough for the Tigers to overcome a seed and record disadvantage? Miami (25-8) returns to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2023, when the Hurricanes made the Final Four as a No. 5 seed. Missouri (20-12) is playing in its second straight March Madness. 

Tipoff is set for 10:10 p.m. ET. The Hurricanes are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Miami vs. Missouri odds, with the over/under at 146.5. Before making any Missouri vs. Miami picks, check out the men's college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has simulated Miami vs. Missouri 10,000 times and just revealed its men's college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several men's college basketball odds and men's college basketball betting lines for Missouri vs. Miami:

Missouri vs. Miami spread:    

Miami -1.5

Missouri vs. Miami over/under:    

146.5 points

Missouri vs. Miami money line:    

Miami -131, Missouri +110

Missouri vs. Miami picks:    

Missouri vs. Miami TV:

truTV

Top Miami vs. Missouri predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Missouri vs. Miami, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (146.5 points). The Over is 6-3 in the last nine Missouri games, including hitting in back-to-back contests. The Over has also hit in two of the last three Miami contests. The Hurricanes are 34th in the nation in scoring at 81.9 points per game this season, and they have the 10th-best shooting percentage (50.1%) in the nation. Missouri is an efficient team from the field as well, ranking 18th at 49.1% from the field, which could lead to sustained offensive success on both ends.

Neither defense has been playing at its best over recent weeks, with Missouri allowing at least 78 points in three straight games and Miami surrendering 84 points to Virginia on March 13 and 92 points to Louisville on March 7. Missouri has played one game at the Enterprise Center this season, but it didn't go well. The Tigers allowed 91 points to Illinois on Dec. 22. Between efficient offenses and neither team playing stellar defense at the moment, the model projects the Over to hit in 73% of simulations.   

How to make Missouri vs. Miami picks

The model also says one side of the spread is the better value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Miami vs. Missouri, and which side of the spread is the better value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.