Mexico vs. South Africa odds, picks, prediction, betting preview, start time for 2026 World Cup opener

The 2026 World Cup is here, and co-host Mexico will get things started Thursday with a Group A match against the Republic of South Africa at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. These teams met in the 2010 World Cup at Soccer City in Johannesburg, South Africa, where the host Bafana Bafana pulled off a 1-1 draw in their opener with El Tricolor before a historic 2-1 victory against France. They were eliminated on a tiebreaker after a loss to Uruguay, and the Mexicans went on to lose 3-1 to Argentina in the Round of 16. Mexico are 6-2-0 in their pre-World Cup friendly matches, while South Africa are 0-3-2.

The latest Mexico vs. South Africa odds from FanDuel list Mexico as heavy -260 favorites on the 90-minute money line, while South Africa are +800 underdogs and a draw is priced at +360. Meanwhile, the Over/Under for total goals is set at 2.5 (Over +116, Under -148). 

There are plenty of other World Cup betting options available on sites like FanDuel, where you can use the latest FanDuel promo code to get $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 wager wins. You can also find Mexico vs. South Africa picks from SportsLine experts Martin "The Guru" Green and Jon "Buckets" Eimer and you can check out the South Africa vs. Mexico picks from the SportsLine Projection Model.

Last year, Green was profitable in multiple areas on his soccer betting picks, including the Champions League (+211.25) and Bundesliga (+100). He's also been red-hot in 2026, posting an 18-8 record over his last 26 UCL picks, returning nearly $1,000 in profit. Eimer has also been on fire on his soccer betting picks in 2026, posting a 31-13-2 record and returning over $1,200 of profit on the Champions League. Anyone following their World Cup betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Mexico vs. South Africa betting odds

Mexico vs. South Africa betting preview

El Tri are heavy favorites to win Group A, with FanDuel pricing them at -140. They are followed by Korea Republic (+350) and Czechia (+380), with South Africa the +1300 longshot. The co-hosts also are strongly favored in this match, as the level of competition in CONCACAF, where Mexico and the USMNT have been the top sides, is superior overall to the Confederation of African Football.

The Mexican side has won the CONCACAF/Gold Cup title 13 times and won the federation's Nations League in 2024-25. El Tri have gone unbeaten in 2026 (6-2-0), with draws against Belgium and Portugal, after a run of six games without a victory (0-4-2) to close out 2025. Their most recent match was a 5-1 drubbing of Serbia on June 4, when Raul Jimenez and Johan Vasquez were among the goal-scorers.

Javier Aguirre's men are led by Jimenez, who has the most caps on the team among field players with 124 and has scored 45 international goals. Mexico are also strong in the middle, with Brian Gutierrez and Alvaro Fidalgo playing alongside Erik Lira and Alexis Vega and Roberto Alvarado providing pace down the wings. Captain Edson Alvarez is a talented wild card who can play almost anywhere, and Vasquez is a reliable center back who plays in Serie A with Genoa.

Veteran Mexican goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa is the only player from either side who was on a roster for both the 2010 and 2026 FIFA World Cups. He did not play in 2010, and Raul Rangel is considered the starter for 2026. Ochoa could start at some point, possibly the opener. The Club America academy product has started all 11 matches in the three World Cups from 2014-22. Rangel has not started an official match for the national team, while Ochoa's 152 caps are the most on the Mexican roster.

South Africa played to a listless 0-0 draw with Nicaragua in Johannesburg on May 29, then faced Jamaica on Saturday in Pachuca, Mexico, coming away with a 1-0 victory. Lyle Foster had the South Africa goal, and he and Themba Zwane are the top scorers on the RSA roster. Foster, 26, has 10 goals in 26 matches with the national team, while the 36-year-old Zwane has 12 in 53 caps and is no longer a regular starter. 

Foster had three goals and two assists as a part-time starter with Burnley in the English Premier League this season and should be the starting striker. A large portion of the Bafana Bafana players are in the Premiership, the top tier of South African soccer. Most are from Orlando Pirates and Mamelodi Sundowns, the top two teams in the division, with the former winning the title by one point this season. 

Manager Hugo Broos has instilled his hard-nosed approach in his players, and young bruising center back Mbekezeli Mbokazi is a clear example of this. The 20-year-old Mbokazi won't be moved off the ball easily, and the Chicago Fire player's powerful shot can cause a lot of trouble for opposing goalkeepers. Ronwen Williams should be in net for the South Africans, and Mamelodi Sundowns teammates Khuliso Mudau and Aubrey Modiba are among those holding the line in front of him.  

Mexico vs. South Africa picks, prediction

• Mexico to win and Under 3.5 goals -105
• Both teams to score 'No'
• Over 2.5 +117

FanDuel parlay price: +628

Mexico to win and Under 3.5 goals

South Africa can be a tough team to face, but the thought of Mexico losing their opener in front of their own fans in a World Cup they're co-hosting is (almost) unfathomable. El Tri are solid from front to back and are aiming to snap their run of being eliminated in the Round of 16 in seven of their past eight appearances. Their failure to get out of the group stage in 2022 will be added motivation this time around. "The South Africans are arguably the weakest team in the group, so this really is a must-win game for Mexico," SportsLine expert Martin Green says. "That should sharpen the players' focus when they step onto the pitch at Estadio Azteca on Thursday."

Mexico to keep a clean sheet

Green also says, "It will be difficult for South Africa to break down this well-drilled team," with talented players like Edson Alvarez holding down the middle. The start of the World Cup brings nerves, rust and a feeling-out process, and South Africa has little experience on this stage. As Green points out, most of the RSA National Team players toil in the domestic league, which is nowhere near the level of pressure or scrutiny that teams in Europe or even Liga MX deal with often. Mexico are used to big games, and Green knows "defensive solidity is their key priority," so he expects a low score and is putting a small stake on the Mexicans to shut things down completely.    

Over 2.5

Fellow SportsLine expert Jon Eimer expects the El Tri attack to look strong in their home stadium. "I think Mexico win this one easily," Eimer says, "by multiple goals, with the crowd being overwhelming." The expert knows how important this game is for the locals and the national team, and South Africa are the clear underdog of the group, facing the overwhelming favorites on their turf. Bafana Bafana haven't looked great in the lead-up to this tournament, while the Mexico attack has been strong at times and efficient almost always. Mexico's 2026 friendlies include a 4-0 victory against Iceland and the 5-1 triumph against Serbia last week. This is a crucial match for the co-hosts, so they should be out to strike early and keep putting the pressure on.