SportsLine's model has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds and revealed its optimal NCAA Tournament bracket 2026
By Daniel Lewis Mar 18, 2026 at 9:49 am ET • 3 min read 
Imagn Images Last year was the first NCAA Tournament tournament since 2008 in which all four No.1 seeds made it to the Final Four. That has happened only twice since 1979, when the current seeding system was implemented. This means 2026 March Madness upsets could return this year, just as they did in 2023. That season, a four-seed won it all when UConn defeated fifth-seeded San Diego State for the national title.
This year's top seeds in the 2026 March Madness bracket will look to avoid the lurking pitfalls. Duke in the East, Arizona in the West, defending national champion Florida in the South and Michigan in the Midwest are the March Madness 2026 No. 1 seeds. Duke is the first top seed facing adversity, having already suffered key injuries. Starters Caleb Foster (broken foot) and Patrick Ngongba II (foot) missed the ACC Tournament. Before filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket 2026, be sure to see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91% of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
There's no reason to rely on luck when there's proven technology to help you dominate your 2026 March Madness picks. Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
Top 2026 March Madness bracket picks (preview two matchups)
One of the Midwest Region picks from the model: No. 9 Saint Louis beats No. 8 Georgia in the first round. Coach Josh Schertz is in his second year at Saint Louis and already has the Billikens among the nation's best. Saint Louis finished 13-20 in 2023-24, but improved to 19-15 with an NIT appearance a year ago. This season, the Billikens have been dominant at times, going 28-5 overall and finishing 15-3 in the Atlantic 10 Conference to win their first conference title since 2013-14. Saint Louis won 22 games this season by 10 or more points. Georgia, meanwhile, tied for seventh in the Southeastern Conference at 10-8 and is 22-10. The Bulldogs, however, have dropped seven of their last 13 games. Georgia is fifth in the nation in scoring at 89.8 points per game, while Saint Louis is 10th at 87.2, but the Billikens have the fourth-best point differential at plus-17.7, while the Bulldogs are 31st at plus-10.6.
Another surprise in the Midwest: No. 5 Texas Tech defeats No. 4 Alabama in the second round. The fact that Bama has notched 23 wins this season is an accomplishment considering how awful its defense has been. Among the 68 NCAA tourney teams, the Tide allow the most points per game (83.5), the most rebounds per game (40) and the most offensive boards per game (13.8). Struggles on that end of the court are just what a Texas Tech team which lost its best player, JT Toppin (ACL), wants to see come March.
The Red Raiders already rank fifth in the country in 3-point percentage, and Bama's lack of rebounding prowess means that even if TTU misses from downtown, it will often get second-chance opportunities. Texas Tech sports a 15-1 record when scoring at least 82 points this season, so Bama allowing 83.5 ppg is a bad omen for the Tide seeing the second weekend. You can see the model's 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup, and which region does the model project the No. 1 seed not making the Final Four, plus there being two double-digit seed stunners? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket, and which NCAA Tournament double-digit seeds will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region is loaded with upsets, all from the model that's beaten 91% of bracket players in four of the last seven tournaments.
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