Louisville vs. USF odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 first-round matchup on Thursday

The 11th-seeded South Florida Bulls meet the sixth-seeded Louisville Cardinals in the first round of the NCAA Tournament East regional on Thursday. USF is coming off a 70-55 win over Wichita State on Sunday to win the American Conference Tournament championship, while Louisville dropped a 78-73 decision to Miami (Fla.) in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament on March 12. The Bulls (25-8), who won the American regular season title at 15-3, have won 11 games in a row. The Cardinals (23-10), who finished sixth in the ACC standings at 11-7, have won three of their last four games. Star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. is out for Louisville.

Tipoff from KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y., is set for 1:30 p.m. ET. Louisville leads the all-time series 29-4, with the last meeting in 2014. Louisville is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest South Florida vs. Louisville odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 160.5. Before making any Louisville vs. South Florida picks, check out the men's college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has simulated USF vs. Louisville 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men's college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several men's college basketball odds and men's college basketball betting lines for Louisville vs. USF:

South Florida vs. Louisville spread:    

Louisville -3.5

South Florida vs. Louisville over/under:    

160.5 points

South Florida vs. Louisville money line:    

South Florida +145, Louisville -175

South Florida vs. Louisville picks:    

South Florida vs. Louisville TV:

TNT

Top USF vs. Louisville predictions

After 10,000 simulations of South Florida vs. Louisville, SportsLine's model is going Under on the total (160.5 points). The Under has hit in each of the last five meetings between the schools. The Under is 9-1 in the last 10 South Florida games, and in six of the last nine Louisville games. South Florida is 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games. Louisville, meanwhile, is 4-6 ATS in their last 10.

The model projects the Bulls to have three players score 13.5 points or more, including Izaiyah Nelson, who is projected to score 14.4 points. The Cardinals are projected to have five players score 10.1 points or more, led by Ryan Conwell, who is projected to score 21.2 points. The model is projecting the Under to clear in well over 50% of simulations. 

How to make Louisville vs. South Florida picks

The model also says one side of the spread hits over 70% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Louisville vs. USF, and which side of the spread hits over 70% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.