SportsLine's model reveals its Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning picks for their 2026 Stanley Cup playoff first-round Game 3 matchup
By Daniel Kohn Apr 24, 2026 at 7:20 am ET • 2 min read 
Imagn Images The 2026 NHL playoffs continue on Friday, and the first puck drop comes in an entertaining series in the East as the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning battle in Game 3 of a series tied 1-1. Montreal upset Tampa Bay on the road in Game 1 and then pushed the Lightning to the brink in Game 2 before defenseman J.J. Moser scored at 12:48 into overtime to help Tampa Bay salvage the split at home.
The puck drops for Game 3 at 7 p.m. ET at the Bell Centre in Montreal. The Lightning are the -122 favorites (risk $122 to win $100) in the latest Canadiens vs. Lightning odds, while the over/under for total goals scored is 5.5. Before making any Canadiens vs. Lightning picks, check out the NHL predictions and betting advice for Canadiens vs. Lightning from the SportsLine Projection Model.
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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times. The model enters the first full week of the 2026 NHL playoffs profitable on top-rated NHL picks this season, including a +550 return on top-rated money-line picks. Anyone following its NHL betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has simulated Canadiens vs. Lightning 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NHL picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NHL odds and trends for Canadiens vs. Lightning:
Canadiens vs. Lightning money line:
Tampa Bay -122, Canadiens +102
Canadiens vs. Lightning over/under:
5.5 goals
Canadiens vs. Lightning puck line:
Tampa Bay -1.5 (+200)
Canadiens vs. Lightning picks:
Canadiens vs. Lightning streaming:
Fubo (Try for free)
Top Canadiens vs. Lightning predictions
After 10,000 simulations of Canadiens vs. Lightning, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (5.5). The Over has hit in seven of the last 11 head-to-head meetings between the teams, including Game 1 of this series when the teams combined for seven goals.
The SportsLine model is projecting Montreal's Cole Caufield to record .56 goals and .45 assists, while goaltender Jakub Dobes will make 22.3 saves and allow 2.98 goals. Tampa Bay's Nikita Kucherov is projected to score 0.51 goals and 1.03 assists. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy will make 19.6 saves and allow 2.92 goals. It is projecting 6.1 combined goals between the teams, making the Over the value play. See the model's Canadiens vs. Lightning predictions at SportsLine.
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How to make Lightning vs. Canadiens picks
After simulating each shift of Canadiens vs. Lightning 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can head to SportsLine to see the model's NHL picks.
So who wins Canadiens vs. Lightning, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Canadiens vs. Lightning spread to back, all from the model that has returned over $550 on top-rated NHL picks, and find out.
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