Labour likely to win next election with Burnham as leader, say party members – UK politics live

Good morning. A week ago, at cabinet, Keir Starmer delivered a “put up or shut up” message to his critics. Wes Streeting, his leading opponent, decided to do neither – declining to launch a leadership bid, but going public with his lack of confidence in the PM and resigning. And then Andy Burnham found a potential seat, meaning that, if Burnham can win the byelection, a leadership challenge has not been averted, just postponed.

We don’t have any byelection polling from Makerfield yet. But last night YouGov released some detailed polling on what Labour members think about the leadership which is worth flagging up because the views of members will influence the way events pan out in the weeks ahead.

Here are the main points.

• Labour members would rather have Burnham than Starmer as leader. Here are the figures when members were asked to rank eight possible candidates.

When YouGov boiled it down to a choice between Starmer and Burnham, Burnham was ahead by a factor of 3 to 2.

• Labour party members believe the party is likely to win the next election with Burnham as leader, but not with Starmer as leader. Here are the figures. These are perhaps the most important findings in the whole report.

• Labour members want Starmer to stand down before the next election – even though generally they think he has done a good job as PM. Only 28% of members say Starmer should lead the party into the next election. But 66% say that Starmer has done either a fairly good (50%) or very good (16%) job as PM.

• Angela Rayner, the former deputy PM, has the highest favourability ratings of any potential leadership candidate – despite not being the person members want to see as leader. This is a reflection of the (fairly obvious) point that you can like someone without thinking they would be a great PM. Rayner leads on the combined ‘very/somewhat favourable’ rating, but, on ‘very favourable’ alone, Burnham is most popular.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Keir Starmer chairs cabinet.

10am: James Graham, the playwright, and Marina Hyde, the Guardian columnist and entertainment podcaster, are among the witnesses giving evidence to the Commons culture committee on the BBC charter renewal.

11.30am: David Lammy, the justice secretary and deputy PM, takes questions in the Commons.

Noon: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

12.10pm: Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, speaks at the Global Partnerships Conference where she is expected to say the blockade of the strait of Hormuz could lead to a “global food crisis”.

After 12.30pm: Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary, is expected to make a statement to MPs on HS2.

Afternoon: MPs resume their king’s speech debate, focusing on energy policy.

1.30pm: Rhun ap Iorwerth, the Welsh first minister, gives a statement to the Senedd setting out his priorities for goverment.

2pm: MSPs meet to elect a first minister, with the SNP’s John Swinney due to be confirmed in the job.

2.30pm: Anne Longfield, chair of the grooming gangs inquiry, gives evidence to the Commons home affairs committee.

4pm: Birmingham city council, which is under no overall control, holds its first meeting since the elections. Councillors are due to appoint a leader.

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