Knicks vs. Spurs predictions: NBA Finals expert picks as Victor Wembanyama leads the favorites

The 2026 NBA Finals have arrived, and it's the San Antonio Spurs vs. the New York Knicks for the Larry O'Brien Trophy. The Knicks, thanks to an impressive 11-game postseason winning streak, are in their first Finals since 1999. The team they faced that year? The Spurs, who won their first of five titles 27 years ago. 

Victor Wembanyama has led San Antonio back to the Finals for the first time since 2014 as the franchise tries to capture a sixth championship. The Spurs took down the reigning champion Thunder in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals on Saturday night, and they'll host Game 1 of the Finals on Wednesday night. The Knicks, meanwhile, haven't played since last Monday and have played just four times since May 11.

With Wemby and home-court advantage, the Spurs are favored in this series (-205 at FanDuel). But who are our experts picking to win it all? We're making our picks below.

2026 NBA Finals: Knicks vs. Spurs predictions

Botkin: Spurs in 7. This is going to be a great series. The Knicks absolutely belong in the league's upper crust with San Antonio and OKC. They are uniquely equipped to combat Victor Wembanyama on both ends, with a brick of a defender in OG Anunoby who can get low leverage and fight Wemby off his spots, and Mitchell Robinson (assuming he plays) as a physical seven-footer who will challenge Wemby to finish at the rim and also force him to work his butt off to grab rebounds. Offensively, Karl-Anthony Towns can pull Wemby out of the paint if that's the matchup, but Josh Hart will likely be the guy Wemby takes to start so he can ignore him and roam as a paint protector as the Spurs did with Alex Caruso. If Wemby takes Hart and the Knicks make them pay by making open 3s, then Wemby has to come out of the paint or switch to covering Towns. If Hart isn't making his 3s, the Knicks have options to bench Hart and play five out. 

The Spurs are loaded with physical wings who can shoot. So are the Knicks. The Spurs force you into a ton of jump shots with Wemby as a back-line protector. The Knicks are a great shooting team. The Spurs win with depth. The Knicks are just as deep. Jalen Brunson can pull up for 3 comfortably if Wemby is dropping to cut off penetration. It sounds like I'd be picking the Knicks, right? 

Wrong. I won't be surprised if they win. But in the end, I'm going with the same rationale that led me to pick San Antonio to win it all at the start of the playoffs. Wembanyama is the biggest difference-maker in the game today. The Knicks can shoot, yes, but they also do a lot of damage in the paint, and Wemby basically shuts that option off. The Spurs will win in 7. It will be a war. 

Gonzalez: Spurs in 6. Adam Silver has to be thrilled about this matchup. Victor Wembanyama and a young, ascendant Spurs team that's well ahead of schedule against the New York Knicks, with that fan base and that arena, in a rematch of the 1999 Finals. Should make for blockbuster ratings. The Knicks are on an epic 11-game winning streak featuring easily the largest point differential in NBA history over that span (regular season or playoffs), and they've once again had plenty of time to rest between series. They'll be fresh and confident. But for as well as they've played, they haven't faced the kind of competition they're up against next. Rolling the Hawks, Sixers and Cavs is altogether different from facing down Wemby and San Antonio's big, athletic guards and wings. The Knicks also won't have home-court advantage this time around, as they did for the last three series. All that adds up to another title for the Spurs and a new disappointment for the Bing Bong crowd.

Maloney: Spurs in 7. The Knicks have been a buzzsaw in the playoffs. They haven't lost since April 23, they have the best offensive rating (123.3), defensive rating (103.5) and net rating (plus-19.8) among playoff teams and their consecutive sweeps of the Sixers and Cavaliers have earned them a significant amount of rest. Beating teams as thoroughly as they have in the playoffs -- they have four 30-point wins and 11 of their 12 victories have been by double digits -- means something regardless of the level of competition.

However, the Knicks haven't played a team as good as the Spurs, particularly on the defensive end. During the regular season, the Hawks were 10th in the league in defensive rating, the Cavaliers were 15th and the Sixers were 17th. The Spurs, with Victor Wembanyama leading the way, were third, and they rank second in postseason defensive rating (104.4).

Wembanyama's presence changes how teams have to play on offense. He eliminates easy baskets in the paint, where the Knicks have been dominant in the postseason. The Knicks lead all playoff teams in shots per game in the restricted area (29.6) and are shooting 68.1% when they get there. They're also first among playoff teams in points in the paint per game (53.3) and fifth in free-throw rate (0.307). They won't have that level of success against the Spurs, and this series may come down to whether the Knicks can continue to shoot as well from 3-point range as they have in the first three rounds (40%).

The Knicks have so much offensive talent and depth, and have been so connected on both ends of the floor that they might just keep rolling, regardless of the Spurs' defensive prowess. But Mitchell Robinson's status is up in the air, the Spurs have home-court advantage and betting against Wembanyama just feels foolish at this point

Quinn: Knicks in 7. Over an 82-game season, the Spurs are probably better than the Knicks. All things considered, though, this is a nightmare matchup for San Antonio. There might not be a better pair of defenders to throw at Victor Wembanyama in all of basketball than OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson. One long, mobile wing who doesn't sacrifice strength. One ultra-physical big to wear him down across seven games (again, assuming Robinson can play). Speaking of getting worn down, when the Finals begin, the Knicks will have played four games in 24 days. The Spurs are coming off of a seven-game war with Oklahoma City. De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper are already playing at less than 100%. The longer this series goes, the better for New York.

San Antonio hasn't faced a true five-out opponent yet. The first battleground of this series will be Josh Hart's shooting. The Spurs will no doubt start things off with Wembanyama guarding Hart and daring him to shoot. They did that against the Thunder and Alex Caruso made half of his 3s. Josh Hart has made over 43% of his wide-open 3s this season. If he misses, the Knicks can go to the look that swung Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, with Landry Shamet in his place. Wembanyama is perhaps the greatest rim-protector in NBA history. Get him in space, and he's mortal. Jalen Brunson is a more comfortable pull-up 3-point shooter than Shai GIlgeous-Alexander. The Knicks have the weapons to drag him away from the basket. If Wembanyama is guarding Hart, the Spurs have no obvious defender for Karl-Anthony Towns. If Wembanyama is on Towns, then Towns pulls him completely away from the rim.

The Knicks won the season series here, 2-1. More importantly, they went +16 in the Wembanyama minutes. No team has vexed the Spurs quite like the Knicks this season. San Antonio has grown over the course of the season. This series will be close. But who do you trust at the end of close games: the team built around players in their early 20s, or the team with Jalen Brunson? This could go either way. I'm leaning toward the Knicks.

Salerno: Spurs in 7. I'm very tempted to take the Knicks here for a few reasons, but the most important one is the rest factor. The Knicks have cruised through the last two rounds of the playoffs and will face a Spurs team coming off a hard-fought seven-game series against the reigning champs. Still, after picking against San Antonio in the West semifinals and conference finals, I will go with the Spurs. The way San Antonio defended Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was impressive. The key to this series for San Antonio is defending Jalen Brunson. If the Spurs can do that effectively, they will be the final team standing.