Top horse racing expert reveals picks for 2026 Kentucky Derby horses like Renegade, Commandment and The Puma
By Ross Kelly Apr 16, 2026 at 2:58 pm ET • 5 min read 
Imagn Images The biggest event in American thoroughbred racing is approaching with the Kentucky Derby 2026 taking place on Saturday, May 2. Just as has been the case every year since 1875, the 2026 Kentucky Derby will be held at Churchill Downs in Louisville, with roughly 150,000 fans in attendance. Much of their attention will go to the favorite, Renegade, the 4-1 favorite in the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds. However, 2026 Kentucky Derby longshots will also attract plenty of interest, and there are several in this year's 2026 Kentucky Derby field.
Renegade's half-brother, Commandment, is the only other horse with single-digit Kentucky Derby odds at 7-1. Other 2026 Kentucky Derby horses like The Puma (12-1), Emerging Market (15-1) and Further Ado (17-1) will also attract attention. If you're looking for a massive longshot to use in horse racing bets, there's the Japan-based Wonder Dean (42-1) who prevailed at the UAE Derby. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
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A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in the last 17 years. He also predicted the top three 2025 Kentucky Derby finishers in the correct order and called the exacta in last year's Preakness. Anyone who has followed him on horse racing betting sites could be way up.
Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby approaching and horse racing futures odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis
One of Demling's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Commandment (7-1), even though the Florida Derby winner is one of the favorites. The horse is trained by Brad Cox, who won as a Kentucky Derby rookie in 2021, but has seen just one of his last 10 starters finish in the money. Those starters have an average finish of 10.4, as Cox, a native of Louisville, hasn't been able to recapture the magic of his Derby debut. One of those last 10 starters, Angel of Empire (2023), was the favorite in the final odds but could only muster a third-place finish.
Commandment may have also already peaked as a racehorse, as he reached his career-best speed figure while winning the Fountain of Youth in February. His next race took place four weeks later, and despite a longer distance, and thus giving the horse more time to build up his speed, his speed figure dipped from the Fountain of Youth. Even though Commandment is the second-favorite, Demling has multiple horses finishing ahead of him. See who to back at SportsLine.
Demling also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby prediction for Renegade, who at 4-1 is trying to become the first favorite to win the Kentucky Derby since 2018. Six of the seven favorites over this span have hit the board, so they've mostly been competitive, but this is the longest streak without the favored horse winning this century. Renegade went winless as a juvenile across three starts, but he has since won both races as a 3-year-old, including the Arkansas Derby.
Saddled by Todd Pletcher, there is no trainer more acquainted with the Kentucky Derby than Pletcher. He has had a record 65 Kentucky Derby starters, 14 more than anyone else. Pletcher does have a pair of victories to his name, but only one of Pletcher's last 17 starters have finished in the money. Pletcher has had the Kentucky Derby favorite twice before, winning with Always Dreaming (2017) and placing 15th with Fierceness (2024). Bet the Kentucky Derby with the latest TwinSpires promo code CBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets to wager on almost any track by clicking here:
Demling has also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby picks for Further Ado (17-1), who is looking to best the third place that his sire, Gun Runner, achieved at the 2016 Kentucky Derby. While Gun Runner didn't win The Run for the Roses, he did win six other G1 races, so Further Ado has pedigree in his favor, at least on one side. The latter's dam, Sky Dreamer, made six stakes starts during her thoroughbred career, failing to win any of them.
Further Ado is one of the few Derby contenders who can boast winning experience at Churchill Downs, courtesy of winning a G2 event at the track as a 2-year-old. His 3-year-old season started off with a runner-up at Tampa Bay and then a victory at the Blue Grass Stakes. There have been 11 horses that have won the Blue Grass and then gone on to triumph at the Kentucky Derby, and Further Ado is looking to be the first to pull off that double since 1991. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby futures bets at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:
How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is also high on an epic double-digit longshot who "demolished the field" in his last start. Anyone who backs this colt could hit it big. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which huge double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 12 Derby-Oaks doubles.
