Top horse racing expert reveals picks for 2026 Kentucky Derby horses like Renegade, Commandment and The Puma
By Ross Kelly Apr 21, 2026 at 1:55 pm ET • 4 min read 
Imagn Images The 2026 Kentucky Derby is rapidly approaching as "The Run for the Roses" is set for Saturday, May 2 at Churchill Downs. It's easily the most iconic horse race of the year, and the 2026 Kentucky Derby field will be set with the 2026 Kentucky Derby post draw on Saturday, April 25. Twenty horses will likely be in the field with two alternates.
The 2026 Kentucky Derby odds list Renegade at 4-1 and Commandment at 7-1 as the 2026 Kentucky Derby favorites. The Puma (12-1), Chief Wallabee (13-1) and Emerging Market (15-1) are the other three 2026 Kentucky Derby horses in the top five on the odds board. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
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A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in the last 17 years. He also predicted the top three 2025 Kentucky Derby finishers in the correct order and called the exacta in last year's Preakness. Anyone who has followed him on horse racing betting sites could be way up.
Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby approaching and horse racing futures odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis
One of Demling's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Commandment (5-1), even though the Florida Derby winner is one of the favorites. The Florida Derby is traditionally one of the top Kentucky Derby prep races, and it has produced 25 Kentucky Derby winners in all. That trend has seen a recent disruption, however, since Always Dreaming (2017) is the last horse to win both of those races. Commandment's time at the Florida Derby, 1.49.99, was also slower than the average winner from the past decade, and the slowest one recorded since White Abarrio in 2022 (1:50.64). Even though he's second on the Kentucky Derby odds board, Demling has multiple other horses projected to finish ahead of him. See who to back at SportsLine.
Demling also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby prediction for Renegade, who at 9-2 is trying to become the first favorite to win the Kentucky Derby since 2018. It's been a mixed bag for Kentucky Derby favorites recently as this seven-year drought without a victory immediately followed a six-year run (2013-18) in which the favored horse won every year. Renegade has won both of his starts as a 3-year-old, including the G1 Arkansas Derby in late March. This comes after going winless as a juvenile across three races.
Renegade was sired by Into Mischief, who won his lone start on dirt at the 2007 CashCall Futurity but never attempted a race longer than 1 1/16 miles. Saddled by Todd Pletcher, Renegade has the most experienced trainer in Kentucky Derby history. Pletcher's had 65 starters at the Run for the Roses, which is 14 more than any other trainer. Two of those horses have prevailed at Churchill Downs for Pletcher, but none of his last 13 Derby starters have finished in the money. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the latest TwinSpires promo code CBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets to wager on almost any track by clicking here:
Demling has also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby picks for Further Ado (6-1), who is looking to best the third place that his sire, Gun Runner, achieved at the 2016 Kentucky Derby. While Gun Runner didn't win The Run for the Roses, he did win six other G1 races, so Further Ado has pedigree in his favor, at least on one side. The latter's dam, Sky Dreamer, made six stakes starts during her thoroughbred career, failing to win any of them.
Further Ado is one of the few 2026 Kentucky Derby contenders who can boast winning experience at Churchill Downs, courtesy of winning a G2 event at the track as a 2-year-old. His 3-year-old season started off with a runner-up at Tampa Bay and a victory at the Blue Grass Stakes. There have been 11 horses that have won the Blue Grass and then gone on to triumph at the Kentucky Derby, and Further Ado is looking to be the first to pull off that double since 1991. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby futures bets at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:
How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is also high on a longshot who "demolished the field" in his last start. Anyone who backs this colt could hit it big. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 12 Derby-Oaks doubles.
