Top horse racing expert Jody Demling reveals picks for 2026 Kentucky Derby horses like Renegade, Commandment, Further Ado and The Puma
By Ross Kelly Apr 30, 2026 at 11:39 am ET • 4 min read 
Imagn Images The 2026 Kentucky Derby will start off with a field of 20 horses, but come the 6:57 p.m. ET post time on Saturday, there's a good chance that fewer than 20 thoroughbreds will enter the gates. Scratches have almost become the norm for the Kentucky Derby as at least one horse has been scratched in every running since 2011. Also-eligible horses sometimes help fill those voids, but not always, as over these last 15 Kentucky Derby races, just six times have 20 horses competed in the race.
As it stands in the 20-horse field, Renegade is the 4-1 favorite as he'll exit from the No. 1 post. A pair of horses priced at 6-1 in the latest Kentucky Derby 2026 odds follow with Commandment and Further Ado. Two imports from Japan are also in the field in Danon Bourbon (20-1) and Wonder Dean (30-1), while Fulleffort was the latest scratch, being replaced by Ocelli (50-1). Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
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A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in the last 17 years. He also predicted the top three 2025 Kentucky Derby finishers in the correct order and hit a $1,682 supefecta, and then went on to nail the exacta in last year's Preakness. Anyone who has followed him on horse racing betting sites could be way up.
Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby approaching and horse racing futures odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis
One of Demling's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He's completely fading Renegade, the morning-line favorite at 4-1. Renegade is coming off a win at the Arkansas Derby, but unfortunately for Renegade, success is not guaranteed at Churchill Downs despite the showing. In fact, only three other horses that won the Arkansas Derby have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. American Pharoah in 2015 was the last horse to do so, while the other Arkansas Derby winners who went on to win at Churchill Downs were Sunny's Halo in 1983 and Smarty Jones in 2004. That lack of success by Arkansas Derby winners is not lost on Demling, who is finding value elsewhere. See who to back at SportsLine.
Demling also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby prediction for Commandment (6-1), a half-sibling of Renegade. The former's dam, Sippican Harbor, was a G1 winner herself, while Commandment's damsire, Orb, won the 2013 Kentucky Derby. However, that fortunate pedigree didn't carry over to the post-position draw as Commandment drew the No. 6 post, which has the second-lowest Derby win rate at 2.1%. Commandment's trainer, Brad Cox, won back in his 2021 debut but has just one in-the-money finish across 10 starters since then. Luis Saez will be aboard Commandment for the first time after other jockeys helped the horse win each of his last four starts. Saez is experienced with The Run for the Roses, making 12 previous rides, as he seeks his first win in a Triple Crown race. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the latest FanDuel Racing promo, which lets users bet $5 and get $25 in bonuses:
Demling has also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby picks for Further Ado (6-1). Further Ado was a longshot in the Kentucky Derby futures throughout the early spring, but he's surged up the board after three wins in his last four races, including a victory at the Blue Grass Stakes on April 4. If there's a question about Further Ado, it might involve his level of competition. His win at the Blue Grass Stakes wasn't against a loaded field. "Is he really improving that much?" Demling said to SportsLine. "Hard to tell, so I can't throw him out." See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby bets at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:
How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is also high on a longshot who "demolished the field" in his last start. Anyone who backs this colt could hit it big. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 12 Derby-Oaks doubles.
