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The escalating war with Iran is threatening to depress Republican turnout ahead of the midterms, as new polling shows President Trump’s MAGA base increasingly turned off by the conflict.
The war has consistently polled poorly among Americans broadly, and a new survey suggests the war could be turning off Trump’s MAGA base specifically, which Republicans are counting on to turn out in the midterms.
The Politico poll published Wednesday found just 37 percent of the president’s supporters backed the war if it led to increased prices, a figure down from 50 percent in May.
Prices are rising again amid the latest fighting between Iran and the U.S. Oil prices specifically spiked after the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen said they would block a Red Sea outlet for oil ships.
The new fighting has damped hopes that the war could end after a memorandum of understanding between the two countries was signed last month.
The national average price of gas Thursday was more than $4 a gallon, according to AAA. And while U.S. consumer inflation slowed in June amid stabilizing oil prices, the new fighting may raise overall inflation again.
The new fighting also resulted in the deaths of four U.S. service members. Three were killed when an Iranian strike hit a U.S. base in Jordan, while another soldier was killed while disabling a drone in Iraq. More than 400 soldiers have been injured in the war, although the administration said that about 90 percent of them have returned to duty.
Democrats have hit the administration in the wake of the latest developments.
“Now we’ve lost at least 18 U.S. service members because of your administration’s incompetence, and you should all be ashamed,” Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.), a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, admonished Trump officials at a hearing Wednesday.
“It’s very clear that Americans are not better off. Potentially the only people better off are the ayatollah and his cronies,” she added.
Republicans acknowledge that the best-case scenario for the party would be for an end to the war, but they argue Trump has built up enough trust with MAGA voters that they will back Republicans, even if they disagree with the war itself.
“Broadly speaking, I think the president has a lot of leeway with his base on almost every issue, including this one,” a source close to the White House said. “There’s a lot of goodwill for Trump among his voters that they’re willing to give him space for things even if they don’t love it.”
But the source noted that the war could complicate the GOP’s turnout strategy, especially since Trump voters tend to come out more forcefully when he is on the ballot.
“It was already a problem. I do think the Iran adventure has exacerbated that problem,” the source said.
The White House argues Trump can handle the war and focus on the domestic economy, but some Republicans are skeptical.
“You can say you can walk and chew gum at the same time but when you’re at war, you really can’t,” the source close to the White House said.
Meanwhile, as the pressure to the end war builds, some GOP lawmakers are calling on Trump to unleash the U.S. military and test Iran’s resolve. They want a major bombing campaign against Iran to force it to make concessions on the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear program.
“We need to allow our military to do what they do best and then negotiate from the rubble,” Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the former chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told CNN on Thursday. McCaul is retiring from Congress.
“I think this back-and-forth approach is not the right one, and it will guarantee that this thing delays into the midterm elections, which is precisely what Iran is trying to do right now.”
House Democrats on Thursday succeeded in passing a war powers resolution that served as a rebuke to Trump’s war, with the help of four GOP votes. Reps. Tom Barrett (R-Mich.) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), who are both facing competitive reelection bids, were among the Republicans who voted for the resolution. The Senate narrowly avoided a vote on the resolution, failing to secure the votes to advance the measure.
“Democrats have been pushing these votes since very early in the war, trying to get Republicans on the record so that in the right districts they can call them out on that,” said John Byrnes, strategic director of Concerned Veterans for America. The group is a partner organization of the conservative group Americans for Prosperity.
Trump and Republicans argue that Americans broadly agree with the administration’s objectives, including preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
“President Trump does not make these decisions based on fluid opinion polls, but on the best interests of the American people,” White House spokesperson Olivia Wales said. “What matters most to the American people is having a commander in chief who takes bold action to keep them safe, which is exactly what President Trump is doing.”
The Republican National Committee echoed the White House, noting Trump’s effort to block Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
“President Trump’s ‘Peace through Strength’ foreign policy has been effective in preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon — something voters overwhelmingly support,” said Natalie Baldassarre, national press secretary at the Republican National Committee.
However, the source close to the White House warned that Trump’s base could be depressed in the midterms if there was a scenario in which the U.S. saw boots on the ground in Iran.
“I think it’s pretty clear that if we send in ground troops it’s going to cause a fissure that’s going to be irreparable,” the source said.
The Iranians are likely hoping that Trump succumbs to the political and economic pressures from the war before Tehran reaches its own breaking point, said Naysan Rafati, senior Iran analyst with the International Crisis Group.
“They [Tehran] are certainly incurring significant military and financial costs themselves, both as a result of the American strikes and naval blockade, but believe that their ability to weather the consequences exceeds Washington’s,” he said.
“It’s a gamble in the sense that President Trump may end up stepping up U.S. operations – and he’s hinted at various infrastructure and nuclear targets that may be in the sights – rather than giving further concessions in negotiations.”
The Washington Post reported earlier this week that U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran’s government is unlikely to soften its negotiating position under the increased pressure from U.S. military strikes. The administration was briefed on the findings, the Post reported.
Despite this, Trump is signaling support for larger military strikes that could target bridges and electricity grids, which could potential be war crimes. The president has escalated attacks over the past 12 days because of Iran’s continued threats against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who also serves as national security adviser, said the president’s policy is “a head for an eye — honestly. That’s what it’s going to be. They’re paying a very heavy price for the things they’re doing.”
The U.S. and Iran are approximately halfway through the time frame laid out in a memorandum of understanding to get to a deal addressing Iran’s nuclear program and to reopen the strait.
Trump told Axios Thursday that the Iranians want to negotiate but are not ready to make a deal yet, as he weighs restarting major combat operations against Iran.
“They haven’t received enough pain yet,” he said.
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