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Iran, after signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Trump administration to end a war that began earlier this year, is celebrating what it sees as a major victory over the U.S.
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen publicly and is believed to have been hurt from a U.S. or Israeli strike, declared in a social media post Thursday that the MOU is a result of President Trump’s “desperation.”
But pushback from regime hard-liners and everyday Iranians point to deep divisions over the agreement and fear for the future.
Researchers are examining Iranian discourse on social media to gauge reactions to the MOU.
These researchers focus on official government accounts, state-backed press reporting and discussions inside Iran from everyday Iranians getting around internet blackouts.
They say that support for the MOU is hardly universal.
“It surprised me that there wasn’t more support for the MOU,” said Erol Yayboke, chief operating officer for FilterLabs.AI, a data-analytics company that uses social media to track public sentiment.
“The opposition to the MOU was either: It didn’t go far enough, or it entrenched the Iranian regime. I would have assumed that there would have been more ‘I am glad the war is over’ chatter. We didn’t see that as much, and I think there’s mistrust … that the war is actually over.”
Debate and pushback inside Iran are an ever-present feature. But while there is disagreement over tactics and strategy, government officials and the military are largely unified on the overall goal of preserving the regime and contesting the U.S.
‘A message from a powerful Iran’
The 14-point MOU is a preliminary agreement that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and halts fighting. It sets up at least 60 days of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran appears to get immediate relief from U.S. sanctions on its oil and banking industries.
FilterLabs assessed that official government channels are highlighting parts of the 14-point plan as key wins: Trump’s agreement to draw down the U.S. naval blockade, with emphasis that Iran secured a U.S. commitment for an “immediate” withdrawal rather than a 30-day timetable. Vice President Vance said Thursday the U.S. has lifted the blockade.
In Point 5 of the MOU, the regime is also stressing that the Iranian commitment to allow toll-free passage through the strait is for 60 days “only” — describing the future status of the strait as subject to “Iranian arrangements.”
“The Strait of Hormuz clause generated intense discourse. Iranian institutional sources were emphatic that the Strait would remain under Iranian management and authority,” FilterLabs wrote in its assessment.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Thursday shared the English text of the MOU on social platform X, describing it as a “historical document and a message from a powerful Iran: Peace will be realized in the shadow of mutual respect.”
The regime is also appealing to hard-liners in its messaging. “This memorandum does not mean trusting the enemy; it has been written with active distrust,” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi told Iran’s Tasnim News Agency. “We will monitor the implementation of US commitments.”
Hard-liners frame MOU as ‘damaging’ chant ‘death’ to negotiators
Tasnim is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the paramilitary organization that is charged with exporting the Islamic revolution abroad and supporting Iran’s proxy groups. It reports directly to Khamenei.
The IRGC, its supporters and affiliated news outlets are at the forefront of opposition to the MOU because it doesn’t go far enough in exacting concessions from the U.S.
“There’s almost a split in the governing regime’s loyal base,” said Matin Mirramezani, project manager for Stanford University’s Iran 2040 project, noting that it’s a loyal, but small part of the population who generally hold extreme views.
“They have kind of been on this bandwagon of being highly anti-American, they want very large concessions from a deal. They think there is a huge leverage that Iran has gained from blocking the Straits.”
Mahmoud Nabavian, described by FilterLabs as a hard-line member of Parliament, criticized the MOU as “damaging” and said it required significant Iranian compromises.
A group of 60 members of Parliament also signed a letter demanding answers from chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, the Speaker of the Parliament, about the MOU.
Member of Parliament Abol-Fazl Abootorabi demanded parliamentary ratification, and another member called the deal “a violation of the Leader’s red lines.”
Protesters demonstrated outside the Foreign Ministry, shaming the negotiators and calling for their resignation and even death.
Iran’s proxy groups target US image online
Even as the regime and hard-liners debate strategy inside Iran, the message outside the country is one of American defeat and capitulation.
Iranian proxy groups across Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen and Iraq are avoiding discussion of the MOU and instead pushing content claiming an embarrassing defeat for America and Israel and the survival of the Islamic Republic.
“They have been posting pretty wild AI videos about how the U.S. has essentially capitulated,” said Moustafa Ayad, executive director Africa, Middle East and Asia with the Institute for Strategic Dialogue.
“While it doesn’t reference the MOU, it does reference something they’ve been hitting on from the very beginning: That the U.S. has lost the war and the discourse is that they survived.”
Ayad described at least one AI video showing Trump waving white flags and bowing to Iran’s Khamenei.
The videos speak to a major strategy employed during the war to use glossy, AI-generated videos — many featuring Lego characters — to lambast Trump and the administration and exploit divisive topics in the U.S.
But a shift has occurred alongside the World Cup, with pro-Iranian accounts using the massively popular soccer tournament to grab attention and views on their propaganda attacking the U.S.
Krysia Sikora, a research analyst with the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, described videos showing Trump appearing as a vampire but wearing a FIFA World Cup jersey.
Explosive Media, an AI-video producing studio that says the Iranian government is a client, is producing videos showing Iranian soccer players as Lego characters holding the hands of children killed in the U.S. strike on a girls school at the start of the war. Trump has acknowledged the attack but called it a mistake.
Sikora said that in her opinion, Iranian supporters of the deal are exercising discipline, not posting content that would undermine the deal — but not letting up on a campaign to undermine the U.S. in public discourse.
Antiregime protesters left out of MOU
Everyday Iranians reacting to the deal include those who protested during antiregime protests between December and January.
Despite an internet blackout, this group of people have still managed to make their voices heard online. They’re expressing disillusionment with the U.S. for failing to hold the regime accountable for its human rights abuses and authoritarian repression.
“It’s a deal with a regime with no gains for the Iranian people in terms of democratic aspirations and human rights,” Mirramezani said.
Trump responded to Iranian protesters in early 2026 by promising that American help was on its way. When he launched the war at the end of February, he told Iranian dissidents to prepare to take over their government.
But the president’s decision to negotiate directly with the regime, legitimizing their power, is deeply disappointing to this audience.
FilterLabs identified a “smaller but vocal group of Iranians” who expressed frustration that the deal will further entrench the Iranian regime.
“A recurring theme among anti-regime Iranians — especially those with relatives who died during protests earlier in 2026 — was outrage at Trump for dealing with the Islamic Republic at all,” the analysis read.
Mirramezani said there is also relief among everyday Iranians not to be in a state of war, and others looking to benefit from a potential economic opening, with the Trump administration promising to lift sanctions on Iran’s banking and oil sector as a first part of the deal.
“These people are in a very dire situation and living in a state of uncertainty for months,” Mirramezani said.
“Even if they’re unhappy with the outcome, they might find some relief in the fact that there’s some resolution and there might be some opportunity for their lives to just get better,” he continued.
“It’s a very low bar, it’s been pretty grim for several months for most Iranians.”
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