Iowa State vs. Tennessee State odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Tennessee State Tigers vs. Iowa State Cyclones and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 first-round matchup on Friday

The 15th-seeded Tennessee State Tigers clash with the second-seeded Iowa State Cyclones in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region on Friday. Tennessee State is coming off a 93-67 win over Morehead State in the championship game of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament on March 7. Iowa State dropped an 82-80 decision to eventual champion Arizona in the Big 12 Conference Tournament semifinals on March 13. The Tigers (23-9), who have won six in a row, tied with Morehead State at 15-5 for the OVC regular-season title. The Cyclones (27-7), who tied for third in the Big 12 standings at 12-6, have won three of their last four games.

Tipoff from the Enterprise Center in St. Louis is set for 2:50 p.m. ET. Iowa State leads the all-time series 4-0, last playing in 2009. Iowa State is a 24.5-point favorite in the latest Tennessee State vs. Iowa State odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 148.5. Before making any Iowa State vs. Tennessee State picks, check out the men's college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has simulated Tennessee State vs. Iowa State 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men's college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several men's college basketball odds and men's college basketball betting lines for Iowa State vs. Tennessee State:

Tennessee State vs. Iowa State spread:    

Iowa State -24.5

Tennessee State vs. Iowa State over/under:    

148.5 points

Tennessee State vs. Iowa State money line:    

Iowa State -10000, TSU +2675

Tennessee State vs. Iowa State picks:    

Tennessee State vs. Iowa State TV:

CBS

Top Tennessee State vs. Iowa State predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Tennessee State vs. Iowa State, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (148.5 points). The Over hit in the last Tennessee State game, and in two of the last four Iowa State games. Tennessee State is 7-3 against the spread in its last 10 games. Iowa State, meanwhile, is 4-0 ATS in its last four.

The model projects the Tigers to have three players score 10.2 points or more, including Travis Harper II, who is projected to score 14.1 points. The Cyclones are projected to have four players score 10.4 points or more, led by Joshua Jefferson, who is projected to score 20.1 points. The model is projecting 154 combined points as the Over clears in 66% of simulations. 

How to make Iowa State vs. Tennessee State picks

The model also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Iowa State vs. Tennessee State, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.