Illinois vs. Iowa odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 Elite 8 matchup on Saturday

A spot in the Final Four is on the line when Big Ten rivals clash as the ninth-seeded Iowa Hawkeyes battle the third-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini in a 2026 NCAA Tournament South Region Elite Eight matchup on Saturday. Iowa is coming off a 77-71 win over fourth-seeded Nebraska on Thursday in the Sweet 16, while Illinois defeated second-seeded Houston 65-55. The Hawkeyes (24-12), who placed ninth in the Big Ten at 10-10, have won three in a row and four of five. The Fighting Illini (27-8), who tied for second in the Big Ten at 15-5, have won three straight and five of six.

Tipoff from the Toyota Center in Houston is set for 6:09 p.m. ET. Illinois is a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Iowa vs. Illinois odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 138.5, up one point from the opening line. Before making any Iowa vs. Illinois picks, check out the Iowa vs. Illinois predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Elite Eight on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks.

Now, the model has simulated Iowa vs. Illinois 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Illinois vs. Iowa:

Iowa vs. Illinois spread:    

Illinois -6.5

Iowa vs. Illinois over/under:    

138.5 points

Iowa vs. Illinois money line:    

Illinois -334, Iowa +264

Iowa vs. Illinois picks:    

Iowa vs. Illinois TV:

TBS

Top Illinois vs. Iowa predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Illinois vs. Iowa, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (138.5 points). The Over has hit in four of the last six head-to-head meetings between the schools. The Over has also hit in four of the last six Iowa games, and in three of the last five Illinois games. 

The model projects the Hawkeyes to have four players score 8.1 points or more, including Bennett Stirtz, who is projected to score 20.1 points. The Fighting Illini are projected to have five players score 10.1 points or more, led by Keaton Wagler, who is projected to score 17 points. The model is projecting 151 combined points as the Over clears in 68% of simulations. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Iowa vs. Illinois picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Iowa vs. Illinois 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Iowa vs. Illinois, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Iowa vs. Illinois spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.