Illinois vs. Houston odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 Sweet 16 matchup on Thursday

The third-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini take on the second-seeded Houston Cougars in a 2026 NCAA Tournament South Region Sweet 16 matchup on Thursday. Illinois is coming off a 76-55-88 last-second victory over VCU on Saturday in the second round, while Houston defeated Texas A&M 88-57 on Saturday. The Illini (26-8), who finished in second place in a three-way tie in the Big 10 Conference, have won four of the last five games. The Cougars (30-6), who came in second in the Big 12, have also won four of five games. 

Tipoff from Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, is set for 10:05 p.m. ET. Houston is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Illinois vs. Houston odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 139.5, check out the Illinois vs Houston predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Sweet 16 on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks.

Now, the model has simulated Illinois vs. Houston 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Illinois vs. Houston:

Illinois vs. Houston spread:    

Houston -2.5

Illinois vs. Houston over/under:    

139.5 points

Illinois vs. Houston money line:    

Houston -164, Illinois +137

Illinois vs. Houston picks:    

Illinois vs. Houston TV:

TBS

Top Illinois vs. Houston predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Illinois vs. Houston, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (139.5 points). The total has gone Over in three of Illinois last four games. Houston's last game also came in Over the total. The Illini are 10-2 straight up in their last 12 games played on a Thursday.

The model projects the Illini to have four players score 12 points or more, including Keaton Wagler, who is projected to score 15.7 points. The Cougars are projected to have three players score 12 points or more, led by Emanuel Sharp, who is projected to score 16.2 points. The model is projecting 150 combined points as the Over clears in 75% of simulations. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Illinois vs. Houston picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Illinois vs. Houston 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Illinois vs. Houston, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Illinois vs. Houston spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.