The Atlanta Braves have been in first place nearly all season. The last day that wrapped up with the Braves not in first place was April 7, when they were 7-5 and a half-game out.
Still, this NL East race is headed into September as one of the most interesting playoff battles in the league, as both the Braves and Phillies continue to run hot and cold, often on different schedules.
On June 7, the Braves beat the Pirates to move to 45-21 and boost their lead to a menacing 9 ½ games. They would go just 4-13 the rest of the month. The Phillies, who started the season 9-19 and fired their manager, went 18-10 in May and 18-9 in June. Pair those hot months with the Braves' dip in the second half of June, and the Braves took just a 2 ½-game lead into July. By the All-Star break, it was only two games.
The Braves came out of the break hot, while the Phillies faltered, and Atlanta's lead grew again.
The Phillies closed July losing eight of their last nine games. Meanwhile, the Braves won 10 of 15 to end the month and also wrapped an eight-game winning streak around the turn of the calendar. They were 70-45 after that eight-game winning streak. They then won three of four through Aug. 12, and the lead grew all the way back to 9 ½ games. The division race looked over.
The Braves then lost seven of their next nine games before winning Sunday night. The Phillies haven't lost in that stretch. Their nine-game winning streak means the division lead for the Braves is now down to three games. Overall, the Phillies went 9-15 in July and are now 16-5 in August.
So what does all that mean? In a season full of mediocre baseball teams and sub-.500 playoff contenders, the NL East race could go down to the wire -- and it's a good one.
Injury returns
Both teams have obviously dealt with injuries this season, but the Braves' pitching staff in particular has been hit hard. They are hoping to get Spencer Schwellenbach back before the end of the season, but his recovery from elbow surgery hasn't been smooth. Reynaldo López, in returning from a knee injury, just went four innings in Triple-A on a rehab assignment, so he'll be back soon. Spencer Strider is done for the season. As for the bullpen, Robert Suarez is slowly on the comeback trail from an elbow injury. A lot of question marks, but also a lot of help theoretically coming.
What's left?
The Braves have the fourth-hardest remaining strength of schedule with an opponents' winning percentage of .521, but the Phillies check in at seventh in baseball at .519. The Phillies hit the road to go out west this week, visiting the Mariners and Angels. They'll finish that trip in Arizona before returning home to face the Braves. We'll get to that. Meanwhile, the Braves host the white-hot Dodgers before getting the hapless Rockies.
The head-to-heads here could be huge. There's a four-game series in Philly Friday, Sept. 4 through Monday, Sept. 7. The following weekend (Friday, Sept. 11 through Sunday, Sept. 13), the Phillies visit the Braves.
Those seven games will go a long way in determining the NL East winner. Keep in mind also that the Braves are 5-1 vs. the Phillies this season, so unless they get crushed in the remaining seven games, they should come away with the tiebreaker.
Unsurprisingly, given that they have a three-game lead, the Braves remain the favorites here. They have a 78.1% chance to win the division; the Phillies have a 21.7% chance, per SportsLine projections. Those projections have the Braves finishing with 92 wins and the Phillies checking it at 89. BetMGM has the Braves as a -295 favorite to take the division, with the Phillies sitting at +230.
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