How Arsenal lost control of their Champions League semifinal and why they will get it back

A draw at Atletico Madrid on Wednesday in the first leg has the Gunners in control of the tie, and they figure to put together a stronger performance at the Emirates in the second leg

MADRID -- With 45 minutes played at the Estadio Metropolitano, the Champions League semifinal was following an Arsenal blueprint quite nicely. Yes, the Gunners had stumbled out of the gates but at the halfway point, they had claimed their lead through a Viktor Gyokeres penalty and were delivering the sort of performance that opponents have grown to dread in recent years.

The possession battle had swung back towards the visitors, who were seeing more of the game in the final third. They weren't creating chances with great volume but they were pinning Atletico Madrid in, snapping up any loose balls and cycling possession to Madueke and Viktor Gyokeres in the box. Diego Simeone's superstar attackers were actually dovetailing quite nicely, intricate moves crafting shooting opportunities for Julian Alvarez. And then along would come Declan Rice to blot out the goal, the ball and the night sky.

Most impressively of all, the Metropolitano had been quelled. A ground that had crackled with anticipation for its Champions League semifinal -- Atleti's run of success in the mid-2010s came while they were still at the Vicente Calderon -- was grumbling and whistling. Arsenal were throttling this game. At the break, Atletico had mustered up just five shots worth 0.22 xG, their entire team registering one more penalty box touch than Noni Madueke's six.

Anyone who has seen Arsenal in action knows what happens here. Mikel Arteta's side grit and grind their way through the second half, maybe picking off their opponent as the game wore on. It might not win them the garlands bestowed on Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich but it has proven to be a reliable and stress-inducing way of winning football matches. It had worked against better teams over the last several years. There was no reason to think it could not work against Atletico Madrid.

That it did not goes some way to explain why Arsenal players were so disappointed as they made their way back to London on Wednesday night. "I would not have taken the draw before kick-off because we wanted to come here and win the game," said Gabriel Martinelli. "The game was a battle, the atmosphere was great and we did our best but we could have done things better."

What changed?

It had been a frustrating second half and before we go any further, it is worth noting that this was event-ball at its eventiest. No matter the adjustments made by Arteta and Simeone, what mattered most in this game was what Danny Makkiele and his officiating team thought constituted a foul in the box. Most that Atletico got right in the second half could have been undone if on the 11th or 12th rewatch of events in the penalty area in the 78th minute, Makkiele had concluded that this much reassessment might suggest he had not made a clear and obvious error.

Even if, however, Arsenal had got their second penalty, they would have been put through the wringer to get it. By the final whistle, Atletico's total xG had skyrocketed to 2.21. Only once this season had they allowed more and that was in the weird closing stages of their 4-1 win over Aston Villa, when they decided it was the right time to let an already beaten opponent hit the ball against a few posts.

Of course, 0.79 of that big xG number is the penalty awarded for a handball by Ben White and converted by Julian Alvarez. There were no complaints from Arsenal in that regard. Scrub that out and the xG total is lower but still quite high by the Gunners' standards. So too the shots they allowed. The 13 Atleti took on their goal was the most allowed by this team in any half of any game this season and still would be if you scrubbed the penalty from the equation. In fact, in the last three seasons, there have only been three occasions where more shots have been taken on the Arsenal goal in 45 minutes: down to 10 men against Brighton and Manchester City and a win over Sporting, who were hitting and hoping at 5-1 down.

Much of this comes down to what Simeone got right rather than anything Arsenal got wrong. The halftime decision to withdraw his son, Giuliano Simeone, for center back Robin Le Normand seemed a curious one at first. Why change an attacker for a defender when you're a goal down? However, Simeone rightly concluded that moving to a back three/five would enable his really dangerous attackers to get closer to each other and attack the spaces between the Arsenal defenders rather than trying to guile their way through the middle or around the outside.

This was particularly pronounced for Ademola Lookman, who had spent much of the first half holding width on the flanks, yards away from Julian Alvarez. That he was able to get closer to his center forward is better captured on the graphic below than his movement infield but with Matteo Ruggeri pushed a few yards further up the left, Lookman could explore the spaces a little more effectively. The same was true across the field as Antoine Griezmann benefited from Marcos Llorente going from right back to wing back.

By adding a defender, Simeone had it so that Atletico were attacking with four or five in the second half rather than three or four as in the first. Some of the hosts' best chances came from the stretching of their wing backs, Lookman a particular threat at the back post.

Meanwhile, Arsenal were not able to play in quite as assertive a fashion as they did in the second half. Some of this might have come down to the decision to remove Martin Odegaard with less than 15 minutes played. The Gunners captain did appear to be struggling with a knock and was not at his very best with the ball at his feet in the final third but he was a foundational piece of his side's structure. Without possession, Odegaard was the only Arsenal player to register multiple possession recoveries in the attacking third.

In build up, his ability to receive possession in tight areas was vital in Arsenal navigating the quite committed press of Atletico and it was apparent when he went off that it became agonising for the visitors to push up the field. In the first half the Gunners found themselves in what most would understand as a classic 4-3-3 shape in possession, Declan Rice dropping deep and splitting the center backs, Odegaard and Martin Zubimendi adding to his passing options.

Introducing Eberechi Eze meant playing to his strengths, most of which are at their best nearer the goal. Eze could occasionally function as a target for Arsenal to break out of the pressure but his first touch was not always as secure under pressure. He very nearly made up for that in the penalty area late on with the penalty that wasn't.

Why Arsenal will be better in the second leg

Ultimately, this proved to be as draining a second half as Arsenal had suffered in a long time. While credit is due to Simeone, Arteta was not wrong in pointing out that his team had "started a bit sloppy", their own inability to break out of pressure bringing the Metropolitano crowd back into the game. By the time they were going for Makkiele over the third penalty that nearly was, you could feel the stadium shaking around you.

In that most hostile of atmospheres, Arsenal started to look tired. "As the game went on, we noticed their fatigue, and the weight of going for the Premier League, trying to win the Champions League," said Simeone. "All of that accumulated, and we picked up."

That weight won't ease by Tuesday night and the second leg. Before then is Saturday afternoon and Fulham, another terrifying stop on this tour of Arsenal's mental and physical anguish. The weekend could take much more out of them than it does Atleti, their La Liga season little more than a string of dead rubbers.

And yet while the coming days are going to take it out of Arsenal, there is reason to believe they will be better next time. Certainly, there is an internal confidence after a more than adequate result in the first leg. "We knew when Atletico went through, it was going to be a big battle and not was a really hard game; they've got a really good side and of course we wanted to come here and win the game," said Martinelli. "We'll take the draw, of course we could have done things better but it's the semifinal of the Champions League, so the opponent is going to be really good and we'll take the draw, go to London and we want to win the game to go to the final."

Asked if he was confident his side will get the result they need, Martinelli added: "Of course. We play for Arsenal, we know how the big club is and we trust in ourselves."

It will help no end to be back in N5, or at least to not be in the Metropolitano again. Arsenal are a formidable outfit at home in this competition. Since returning to it in 2023-24 they have won 14, drawn three and lost just once, conceding a mere eight goals in those 18 games. So far this season, the only non-English team to have had shots worth over one xG at the Emirates Stadium is Kairat Almaty in a dead rubber. Atleti themselves know how tough it is to play an Arsenal settled in their home comforts, losing 4-0 earlier this season.

And of course, Arsenal get to play on their pitch. This was not an insignificant issue for the Gunners in Spain. Before the game the visitors lodged a complaint over the state of the grass at the Metropolitano, echoing issues that had been raised by both Tottenham and Barcelona. Halftime brought the unmistakable sight of the end that the Gunners were due to be defending getting an almighty dousing, while the other was hit with a brief spray of the sprinklers. That rather backfired when Lookman slipped in a prime position.

There is more to it than just home comforts, too. Both Eze and Bukayo Saka operated under a minutes restriction and both offered real attacking impetus when they entered the fray. That is all the more encouraging given that Madueke, Gyokeres and Martinelli -- so ineffectual as a triumvirate in most games this season -- put in better performances than might have been expected. There remains the possibility that Kai Havertz will shake off his groin issue in time for Tuesday's second leg. That is a lot of talent to put on the field in pursuit of a win.

"We have so many good players," said Martinelli. "The depth in this squad is really good, if everyone is ready it will be a big boost for us so let's hope everyone is ok for the next one."

For all the gnashing and wailing about Arsenal, eminently understandable given the position they're in, most of the issues they've had down the stretch have been down to player availability. At the time of writing it looks like they could be set pretty fair for next Tuesday, while Simeone's bullish post-match comments are hardly a guarantee of Alvarez's availability.

That matters most of all. At full strength Arsenal can get the ball into dangerous areas, keep it there and mitigate against the risks that come on the counter. The second half on Wednesday night was as tough as it has got for Arsenal this season. At this point it is fair to suggest that they should have the weapons to make it easier for themselves at the Emirates Stadium next week.