Houston vs. Idaho odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Idaho Vandals vs. Houston Cougars and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 first-round matchup on Thursday

Last year, the Houston Cougars had their season ended in the National Championship Game. But before getting near a chance at redemption for that loss, No. 2 Houston faces No. 15 seed Idaho Vandals in the South Region in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday night. Houston was the preseason No. 2 team in the nation and enter March Madness 2026 ranked fifth. The Cougars (28-6) are coming off a 79-74 loss to Arizona in the Big 12 title game on Saturday. Meanwhile, Idaho (21-14) went on a Cinderella run in the Big Sky Tournament, winning the conference tournament as the No. 7 seed, despite going 9-9 in conference play. The Vandals make their first March Madness appearance since 1990. 

Tipoff from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Okla., is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. The Cougars are 23.5-point favorites in the latest Houston vs. Idaho odds, with the over/under at 137.5. Before making any Idaho vs. Houston picks, check out the men's college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has simulated Houston vs. Idaho 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men's college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several men's college basketball odds and men's college basketball betting lines for Idaho vs. Houston:

Houston vs. Idaho spread:    

Houston -23.5

Houston vs. Idaho over/under:    

137.5 points

Houston vs. Idaho money line:    

Houston -9091, Idaho +2550

Houston vs. Idaho picks:    

Houston vs. Idaho TV:

truTV

Top Houston vs. Idaho predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Houston vs. Idaho, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (137.5 points). Houston is known as an elite defensive program, and this year is no different, ranking second in the nation at 62.9 points per game allowed. However, Houston has its best offense in years, averaging 77.1 ppg this season. None of the last six Cougars teams even reached 75 ppg.

Idaho hasn't played a team near Houston's level all season, and the Cougars have scored at least 80 points in eight games, including two contests with more than 100 points this season. Forced turnovers could lead to quick offense and easy points for Houston in a significant mismatch. The Over has hit in two of Idaho's last three games, with the Vandals scoring at least 77 points in all three contests. The model has these teams combining for 148 points, as the Over hits in 74.4% of simulations.   

How to make Idaho vs. Houston picks

The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Houston vs. Idaho, and which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.