House Republicans look to silver linings for midterm playbook as they embark on recess

House House Republicans look to silver linings for midterm playbook as they embark on recess Comments: by Emily Brooks - 07/26/26 5:00 PM ET Comments: Link copied by Emily Brooks - 07/26/26 5:00 PM ET Comments: Link copied

NOW PLAYING

House Republicans are fanning out across the country for August recess hoping to capitalize on silver linings in an otherwise tough midterm environment as they kick off a 100-day sprint to Election Day.

They are looking for bright spots in mostly daunting public polling. They are taking every opportunity to tie all Democrats to the far-left candidates who have shocked the establishment with recent primary wins.

And GOP leaders, despite enduring a legislative summer marred by infighting, are touting passage of a stock trading ban; a shutdown-averting stopgap funding bill; an annual defense policy bill; and a third reconciliation framework that would fund the Pentagon, farm aid and voting restrictions demanded by President Trump.

“Many of you like to say that major legislating can’t happen in an election year. We just proved you wrong,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told reporters Wednesday after overseeing passage of those major measures.

“This week, we continued to deliver for the people, and we’re going to continue that streak all the way through the end of this year and into the next Congress. We’re increasingly confident that we will hold and grow this majority in the House,” Johnson said.

The Speaker did not mention that one of those pieces of legislation, the annual defense policy bill, had been delayed for weeks as leaders worked to overcome a blockade from hard-line conservative members that derailed its consideration the month before.

Republicans argue it is the end result, and not a messy inside-the-Beltway legislative hiccups, that will actually matter to voters.

The reality is that factors outside of candidates’ control, including gas prices and Trump’s approval rating, will likely prove most influential.

History shows the party in control of the White House almost always loses seats in the House in a midterm election — and key polling and economic indicators suggest that trend is likely to continue in 2026.

As of Friday, The Hill’s partners at Decision Desk HQ found that Democrats had a 4.1 percentage point edge over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot poll question in public surveys, which asks whether respondents would support a Democrat or Republican in the general election.

Republicans early in the week had been encouraged by public generic polling numbers that, despite still trailing, suggested a tightening race compared with the start of the summer. But that was quickly dampened by polls released later in the week, with Emerson finding Democrats with an 11-point lead and a Fox News poll finding Democrats with a 7-point advantage.

But Republicans insist that low approval ratings for the Democratic Party brand overall — with polls consistently finding that party is underwater with voters — presents a key opportunity for the GOP.

With the Democratic Party lacking a defining unifying figure, House Republicans are working hard to define the party themselves.

“This is not your father’s Democrat Party. It’s a party that’s lost its way. They’re in a civil war with each other. They’re openly fighting amongst each other to see who can go crazier to the left,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said Thursday.

Republican leaders in July pointed to primary wins by progressive candidates and those affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America to argue that the party would help usher in not just democratic socialism, but communism.

“We had been saying that this was an election that was shaping up as a contest between common sense and crazy, and now it is literally in many sectors around the country, common sense versus communism,” Johnson said.

Rising prices and the war in Iran, though, present a consistent challenge for Republicans. Gas prices last week ticked up to more than $4 per gallon.

CNN data analyst Harry Enten noted that the Fox News poll found that Democrats have a 10-point advantage over Republicans on being trusted to handle inflation, a dramatic shift from October 2024 when an ABC poll found Trump had a 6-point advantage over former Vice President Kamala Harris on the issue.

“If these numbers hold, it’s very hard to imagine that Republicans are able to hold on to the House of Representatives when on the number one issue, the Democrats are trusted by 10 points,” Enten said.

Republicans are largely trying to forage ahead and work through the challenges on war-related price dynamics.

“You know what’s going on in Iran, and so you’ve seen some blips up and down,” Scalise said of prices.

When it comes to one dynamic they can control, fundraising, House Republicans are encouraged. While some Republicans in key House districts are getting outraised by their Democratic opponents, many are holding their own or retain a cash-on-hand advantage.

Plus, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and the Republican National Committee (RNC) have recently outraised and have a cash-on-hand advantage relative to their counterparts at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and Democratic National Committee (DNC). The NRCC has $92.7 million in the bank compared with $79 million for the DCCC, while the RNC has $128 million compared with the DNC’s $16 million in cash plus $18 million in debt.

With a Supreme Court decision last month striking down federal limits on coordination between parties and candidates, that cash could make a big difference as the committees come to the aid of candidates who need a boost in advertising and outreach.

Republicans have also gotten far more optimistic about their midterm prospects in light of court decisions this year that prevented Democrats from getting a sizable advantage due to redistricting. And they are encouraged by the fact that of the most competitive House seats, 23 Democrats are running in districts that Trump won in 2024, while only eight Republicans are running in seats that Harris won.

“Republicans have a more favorable map, stronger candidates, a deep fundraising advantage, and a winning message that serves as a stark contrast to Democrats’ radical turn to socialism and messy infighting. Republicans have a winning formula, and we have the ingredients to grow the House majority in November,” NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella said in a statement.

Add as preferred source on Google Tags Mike Johnson

Comments: Link copied