The expanded 48-team World Cup has brought plenty to grapple with and not much time for pondering. Every day has somewhere between three and six games until the round of 16 starts to slow down. But with the United States winning a knockout stage game for the first time in 24 years, it's an important time to take a step back and look at their accomplishment. It's trickier than it seems.
As compared to previous World Cups, not only was it easier to get out of the group stage with third-placed teams advancing, but thanks to the United States being a host nation, their knockout path included one of those third-place nations, facing Bosnia and Herzegovina in the newly minted round of 32. While host nations generally get a better path in World Cups, Bosnia and Herzegovina is the third-worst team in the FIFA rankings in the knockouts, ranked at 64th, so America sure did end up with a great draw.
Before we move further, it's important to emphasize that this isn't about belittling the United States' accomplishment of making the round of 16, but it's important to grapple with what it does, and doesn't, mean.
To get to this point, the United States had to get through one of the toughest groups in the tournament, which is highlighted by the fact that two teams have guaranteed their place in the round of 16, while Australia has a chance to follow the USMNT and Paraguay. Türkiye were among the favorites to win the group, but the United States played front-foot soccer and took control of their destiny, even when Christian Pulisic wasn't available. In modern World Cups, it's among the most impressive group stage performances that the United States have had, and it's also why, despite only managing at one World Cup, Mauricio Pochettino is the manager with the most wins at a World Cup with three.
They set out with a task at hand, and so far, the USMNT have risen to the pressure to make it through to the round of 16, but that's again where the fact that they had to play in almost a pre-knockout round comes into play. In 2002, the United States defeated Mexico in the round of 16 2-0, creating one of the most iconic moments in USMNT history and a chant that lives on in Dos a Cero.
Defeating Bosnia and Herzegovina, doesn't measure up to that yet, even if on paper, it ends the run of knockout stage suffering at the World Cup that has gone on for most of my life.
Malik Tillman's freekick goal and his bloody sock will live on in USMNT lore, but they also haven't done enough yet to consider this World Cup a success. Winning against Bosnia and Herzegovina and then losing to what this version of Belgium is would still leave a bad taste in Americans' mouths, especially after losing to the Red Devils 5-2 back in March.
Not having Folarin Balogun available for the match, it will call for the UMSNT to rise to the occasion, similarly to how they won the group, taking out Australia without Pulisic available. Defeating Belgium feels like the minimum for this World Cup to be considered a total success for the Red, White, and Blue, and given their level of belief under Pochettino, it does feel possible that they can do so.
Tactically, the Argentine has set up the team in different looks, and he'll need to do so yet again. Just because they had to win another match to get there doesn't change that it has still been 24 years since this team has made it past the round of 16, and ending that drought is still one of the prime goals of this World Cup. More will still be needed for the USMNT to have a chance at doing something crazy like winning the entire tournament, but returning to Seattle, they'll have a strong home-field advantage that can be leaned into while trying to accomplish that goal. This has a chance to be a special World Cup for Pochettino and the USMNT, and one more win can really begin the dreaming around if they can really win the entire thing.
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