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Republicans are largely skeptical that President Trump’s deal with Iran will deliver a geopolitical win, but they are bullish about its impact on the midterms, with gas prices already dropping.
One national Republican operative described feeling “relief” after the agreement, pointing to positive reactions from markets.
Oil prices have fallen to their lowest point since the war began at the end of February following the announcement of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran this week. Brent Crude, the international oil benchmark, sat at $79.53 per barrel on Thursday, while West Texas Industrial, the U.S. benchmark, was at $76.55.
Meanwhile, gas prices also hit their lowest point in recent months. According to AAA, the national average for gas prices was at $3.99 per gallon on Thursday.
“Republicans are eager to find out more details, but I think it’s a really good sign as we head into campaign season, and Republicans are desperately looking for a positive message on this,” the national GOP operative said.
Vice President Vance highlighted the drop in energy prices at the White House press briefing on Thursday, announcing that 12.5 million barrels of oil flowed through Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday evening.
“The peace plan in Iran is already bearing real fruits for the American people,” the vice president told reporters.
Trump touted the rising stock market and drop in oil prices in his first public appearance at the White House since returning from signing the memorandum in France.
“The stock market just hit a new all-time high, the 401(k)s just hit a new all-time high, and oil is dropping like a rock. Other than that, it’s another day in paradise,” Trump said.
To be sure, there are dangers in the Iran deal, politically, for Republicans, too.
Democrats and some Republicans in Congress have argued that Trump gave too many concessions to Tehran during negotiations. Democrats are likely to fiercely criticize the war — which has been unpopular in polls — during the fall midterms, arguing it was a war of choice that did not accomplish U.S. objectives.
It’s also not entirely clear how much gas prices will fall between now and November.
But it is clear that the rising prices have hurt Trump with voters, while leaving his political opponents confident they can run against him on the issue of affordability.
Only 33 percent of Americans said they approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released on Thursday. Trump’s approval rating on the economy was three points lower than the low point for former President Biden’s handling of the economy in February of 2022.
Still, even if prices do not immediately fall down to their pre-Iran war levels, the end of the war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is something for Republicans to celebrate, some say.
“Even if it doesn’t get back to prewar levels, anytime there is good news to share, Republicans are going to rally around it,” the Republican operative said.
Other Republicans are not as optimistic, arguing that gas prices do not solve the party’s affordability woes.
“That was something that was self-inflicted and only brought about by this conflict in the first place,” said one Republican strategist. “The real danger for Republicans was gas prices were just a new, more visible way of expressing what was already on the minds of voters.”
Republicans say it’s too early to tell what role the preliminary deal will play in the midterms, noting that negotiations between Washington and Tehran on a final deal are only just beginning.
But a growing chorus of Republicans, particularly in the Senate, are voicing their discontent with the memorandum.
Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) said on Wednesday he was “concerned” that the preliminary agreement undoes the progress made during Operation Epic Fury, while Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said he believes Trump is receiving “poor advice” on the matter.
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who lost his primary to a Trump-backed challenger, said former President Reagan is “rolling over in his grave.”
Many Republicans have taken particular issue with the $300 billion reconstruction fund that is included in the deal. They argue that even though — as the Trump administration has emphasized — the U.S. will not put money into the fund, its existence is a boon for Iran.
Trump officials heavily criticized the Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran, including cash that was sent to Iran as part of that agreement, which unfroze certain Iranian assets.
Democrats say the creation of the $300 billion fund to rebuild Iran risks making Republicans look out of touch.
“We’re seeing in real time what the effect of having zero check on Donald Trump, and a total abdication of their authority is doing to the American people,” said Dan Kanninen, a Democratic strategist and former battleground states director for the 2024 Biden and Harris campaigns.
“Three hundred billion dollars to Iran. A billion dollars a day in higher gas prices that the American people are paying, hundreds of dollars a month for the average American on healthcare costs for example,” he continued. “All of this is at the feet of the Trump administration’s policies, but these Republicans in Congress have let it happen.”
“And now we see the result of that,” he added.
Other Republicans are skeptical that the memorandum and the Iran war will play directly into the midterms, predicting the key issues will be the economy and inflation.
“It feels like more, honestly, of a Republican 2028 presidential debate contour than a midterm in November,” the Republican strategist said.
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