There are nine games on the MLB schedule for Thursday, June 18 and while there is some day baseball taking place, the evening slate offers more options for those looking to bet on MLB, particularly when it comes to home run prop bets. SportsLine expert Adam Thompson has scanned the day's action and highlighted his best home run props bets for Thursday.
Thompson was one of the earliest SportsLine experts from 2016-19 and rejoined the company in 2026 following a stint as the primary betting analyst for the Gambling.com Group. An analytics-driven exploiter of matchups, Thompson specializes in the NFL, MLB and the NBA. He also has delivered consistent winners in college basketball, horse racing and golf. Over the past two seasons, he's up over 70 units in MLB and more than 60 units in the NBA at sports betting apps.
Here's who Thompson likes to go yard on Thursday, June 18.
Best home run picks for Thursday, June 18
- Juan Soto, New York Mets (+253)
- Miguel Vargas, Chicago White Sox (+255)
Juan Soto, Mets (+253, DraftKings)
Soto is on a roll of late. Over the last week, the Mets outfielder is hitting a robust .480, including two home runs, with only three strikeouts. On Wednesday against the Reds, he went 3-for-5 with a double and four RBI. Now, he faces Phillies veteran Aaron Nola, who got hit for two home runs against the Brewers last time out. He's giving up homers at a career pace and winds close to 20 mph blowing out to right field are expected for Thursday night at Citizens Bank Park.
Soto has a modest three home runs in 40 career at-bats vs. Nola, but a hefty .946 OPS. We'll side with the trajectory of the wind, of Soto's current form and of Nola's pitches going yard at higher rates.
Miguel Vargas, White Sox (+255, FanDuel)
Yankees starting pitcher Ryan Weathers just can't keep it in the ballpark. Over his last three starts, Weathers has given up a whopping seven home runs, at least two in each game. Here come the White Sox, who don't have emergent slugger Munetaka Murakami in the lineup but still rank No. 3 in MLB with 100 home runs hit.
Vargas has just one home run since June 1 and only three extra-base hits in that span, but he has absolutely feasted on left-handed pitching. Nearly half of his 16 home runs (7) have come against southpaws despite 110 fewer at-bats against them, and he's hitting .338 vs. LHPs compared to .207 vs. right-handers. The wind is expected to be blowing out to left at 15-20 mph, aiding everyone's home run chances. Vargas, especially, can feast on the struggling Weathers.
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