Rosters expanded around the majors Tuesday when the calendar flipped to September, and back in the day that would mean a bunch of minor-league arms being called up and a lot of September home runs off inexperienced pitchers. Alas, that's no longer the case. Rosters only expand now from 26 to 28, and teams aren't allowed to have more than 14 total pitchers.
Regarding homers, I'm all about Pete Crow-Armstrong winning the big-league crown as a Cubs batter hasn't led the majors or National League since Sammy Sosa in 2000 -- and that comes with an obvious asterisk. A few weeks ago, PCA was a major longshot on this prop, but he has been raking and now sits at 39 homers, one shy of Kyle Schwarber's big-league lead. Crow-Armstrong, the runaway -3000 NL MVP favorite (-1600 entering Thursday) and poised for a rare 40-40 season, is +300 for the home run title, behind only the former Cub Schwarber (-190). I don't generally care about such things, but I do with those two involved.
I don't love PCA tonight in Miami, though, for MLB prop betting. Shoot, maybe I should drive over for one of those Cubs-Marlins matchups. Not exactly hard to get good seats in Miami. Bet home run props at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets with a $5 wager:
Those who want to get into MLB betting, particularly home run prop betting, need to take a look at what I'm playing for Friday's games. Over the past four MLB seasons, I'm up $1,681 on MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.
Last Friday, my home run picks were the Royals' Bobby Witt Jr. at +350 and Reds' JJ Bleday at +495. Remember, all my HR plays mean I like Over 1.5 total bases even better at the best sports betting apps -- Witt did have a double at Cleveland but didn't go yard. Cincinnati scored 10 runs at Wrigley Field last Friday but Bleday only managed a single in five at-bats.
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Top MLB home run picks for Friday, Sept. 4
- Matt Olson, Braves (+520, DraftKings)
- Jazz Chisholm, Yankees (+520, FanDuel)
Matt Olson, Braves (+520, DraftKings)
A huge NL East series between the Braves and Phillies at Citizens Bank Park starts at 6:40 ET, and Philadelphia probably has to sweep this to have any shot at winning the division for a third straight year. No weather concerns tonight.
Normally, I wouldn't touch a home run prop from such a spectacular pitching matchup between two of the majors' top lefties in Atlanta's Chris Sale and Philadelphia's Cristopher Sanchez. Sale of course won the 2024 NL Cy Young and Sanchez was second last year. They are probably going to finish 2-3 in the voting this year in whatever order behind Milwaukee's Jacob Misiorowski. We definitely could see Sale vs. Sanchez in a Game 1 of a playoff series come October. While Sanchez (16-4, 2.52 ERA) won't win his first Cy Young, he is tied with Boston's Sonny Gray for the big-league lead with 16 victories.
Sanchez will give up the occasional homer with 14 overall this year, although 10 of those have come away, where his numbers aren't nearly as good. But I can't ignore Matt Olson's career splits in this matchup. Olson has hit 37 bombs this season, the third-most in his career and three behind Philadelphia's Schwarber for the MLB lead. Olson is +800 to win a second HR title -- he hit 54 in 2023.
The lefty masher has done most of his damage against right-handers with 23 of his 37 dingers, but Olson hits Sanchez well at 6-for-20 with two homers and two doubles, good for a 1.033 OPS. Also consider trade acquisition Lane Thomas at a great price of +780. Yeah, he is hitting only .194 with one homer in 19 games with Atlanta after coming over from Kansas City, but Thomas is 8-for-14 with two doubles and a homer off Sanchez, good for a 1.576 OPS.
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Jazz Chisholm, Yankees (+520, FanDuel)
It's a total coincidence the two players I picked have the same price to go yard at different books. San Diego's Petco Park is decidedly not hitter friendly as the Padres welcome the Yankees at 9:40 ET tonight to open a series between wild card hopefuls. Well, New York is all but surely getting an AL spot. San Diego's chances are still up in the air. Needless to say, we rarely have to worry about weather in San Diego and don't Friday.
Yanks infielder Jazz Chisholm, a pending free agent, was in the news this week because a Red Sox announcer said a Boston pitcher should hit and fight Chisholm after he stole a couple of bases in a blowout. Chisholm had just two homers over 27 games in August but hit one Monday among three hits. This is all about the lefty slugger's career splits against Padres pitcher Walker Buehler.
I often look at a player's OPS against a pitcher first when choosing a home run prop and Chisholm's OPS of 1.900 vs. Buehler is about as good as you can ask for. He's 6-for-10 off Buehler with two homers and a double. Buehler (8-6, 4.66 ERA) has allowed 17 homers on the year and gave up two last time out. Perhaps also consider Cody Bellinger at +506. He has a homer in five at-bats off Buehler and enters red-hot with multiple hits in four straight games. He hasn't homered, though, since Aug. 25, and has just 12 on the year. Bellinger did spend some time on the injured list.
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