Fans who want to wager on home run player props have hundreds of choices on Monday, July 27, with a 12-game MLB schedule on tap and all but one game scheduled for the evening. A best bet to a hit a home run today is a common play in MLB betting, and there are plenty of intriguing matchups -- between both teams and pitchers. Division games like Braves vs. Mets, Phillies vs. Marlins and Cubs vs. Cardinals are highlights of the Monday MLB schedule. And one of the most intriguing matchups of the day is White Sox vs. Yankees as Chicago aims to make a statement at home in a four-game series.
The Yankees are -148 money line favorites in the consensus MLB odds, with Chicago a +123 underdog and the total for runs scored set at 8.5. SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca has scoured all of Monday's MLB odds and found his best bets to take one deep Monday. Sign up to wager on Monday home run props at BetMGM using the promo code CBSSPORTS and get up to $1,500 in bonus bets:
Magliocca, also known as "Amags," is a hugely profitable MLB handicapper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Best home run picks for Monday
- Willson Contreras, Red Sox (+340, FanDuel)
- Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox (+340, FanDuel)
- Jasson Dominguez, Yankees (+559, DraftKings)
Willson Contreras (+340) and Wilyer Abreu (+340)
If you're going out there looking for some home runs, Sacramento has been one of the best spots to find them over the last couple of seasons. Sutter Health Park ranks second in Statcast's MLB Park Factor for home runs, especially for righties, and we get the Red Sox as the away team getting nine at-bats with many coming against a leaky A's bullpen.
Jack Perkins will start for the Athletics, and he has allowed six home runs in his past four home starts, with 11 total long balls surrendered in 62 innings. We get a hitting environment that should be hot, with winds slightly pushing out, which shouldn't do Perkins any favors. He's allowed fly balls at a near 50% clip with an abysmal 20% HR/FB rate, and six of those home runs were from right-handed batters. Willson Contreras ranks as an easy top 10 home run option tonight against Perkins, with 15 of his 22 home runs coming against right-handed pitchers this year.
Abreu puts the ball in the air at the highest rate among these Red Sox batters, nearly 40% of the time, and I like that he's boosted his barrel rate thus far with more line drives than last year. Furthermore, even if he's on the "wrong" side of the split for Perkins, this A's bullpen ranks as the worst in all of baseball for ERA and has allowed the second-most home runs of any set of relievers.
That can somewhat be attributed to using openers at times, but the bullpen is near league worst, and Abreu hits near the top of the Red Sox order and has the power to leave the yard on any day. Putting the ball up into the air more in this park is to our benefit, and I like the prospects of what Abreu could do against some of the relievers if not Perkins.
Worth Noting: Curtis Mead is not guaranteed to start, but it looks probable that he will, in what will be his first appearance for his new club. I think he makes a solid first impression and goes yard, plus the price is showing some value at +494 and he has hit 10 of his 17 homers against righties this year.
Jasson Dominguez (+559)
Noah Schultz has an xSLG above .500 on over 60% of his pitch mix against righties, which consists of a four-seam fastball, sinker, cutter, sweeper and change-up. It's surprisingly been the sweeper that right-handed hitters have taken out of the yard four times, with eight of his nine homers coming against righties. I say surprisingly because breaking pitches from lefties who sling the ball across their body are generally tougher to pick up and barrel for hitters, so that offering performing the worst for him is not a good sign of things to come.
The average exit velocity on the sweeper is above 92 mph as it is being hit hard at a high rate, and Dominguez has improved tremendously as a right-handed hitter. I like this price for a guy who will be near the top of the order for the away team, against a pitcher who has allowed at least one home run in six consecutive starts, plus we get the platoon advantage on both sides. With the Cody Bellinger injury, Dominguez is locked in to a full-time role and will play all nine innings.
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