SportsLine's Adam Thompson shares his best MLB home run props picks for Thursday's games
By James Holliman Apr 9, 2026 at 11:41 am ET • 2 min read
Imagn Images There are only six MLB games set for Thursday, but each one offers plenty of prop betting options for fans looking for MLB betting picks. Bettors are loving the long ball, with home run props being among the more popular MLB bets, and SportsLine's Adam Thompson is sharing his best MLB picks for Thursday's games. Thompson loves one pick from the Mets vs. Diamondbacks matchup, and Thursday's schedule also includes a Yankees vs. Athletics battle as New York tries to rebound from a 3-2 loss on Wednesday. In addition to Thompson's picks, you can see MLB prop picks for every game at SportsLine, which has its model plays and selections from other proven experts.
An analytics-driven exploiter of matchups, Thompson specializes in the NFL, MLB and NBA. He also has delivered consistent winners in college basketball, horse racing and golf. Over the past two seasons, he's up over 70 units in MLB and over 60 units in the NBA. You can find more of his picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.
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Here are Adam Thompson's home run prop picks and analysis for Thursday (odds subject to change):
- Salvador Perez, Royals (+470)
- Bo Bichette, Mets (+680)
Salvador Perez, Royals (+470, FanDuel)
Through two starts, left-handed hitters don't have a hit against White Sox LHP Anthony Kay. Right-handers have fared better, including two home runs. The wind should be blowing out in K.C. on Thursday night, so if someone can get a ball in the air, it could travel.
The 6-foot-2, 255-pound Perez can get the ball in the air. It's been a tough 2026 so far for Perez, who is batting a brutal .156 with two home runs. He hit 30 last year, so we know the capability is there.
Kay hasn't gotten out of the fifth inning in either of his starts so far. The Sox bullpen hasn't been good, posting a 5.71 ERA with nine HRs, the fourth-most among bullpens.
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Bo Bichette, Mets (+680, DraftKings)
Trends need to break for this one to hit, but history suggests they might. Bichette hasn't hit a home run through 12 games. He's batting just .222 with only two extra-base hits. The Mets aren't getting much bang for their buck after inking Bichette to a three-year, $126 million deal in the offseason.
Bichette will start by facing Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez, who hasn't allowed a run in two starts, let alone a home run. But last year he gave up 25 of them, which was nearly one per outing.
Put the two together and Bichette wins. In 13 career at-bats against Rodriguez, Bichette is 5-of-13 (.385) with two home runs. At these odds, it seems at least worth a sprinkle to back Bichette finding his 2025 form.
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