SportsLine MLB expert Adam Thompson has the best home run prop bets you can make for Thursday, April 30
By James Holliman Apr 30, 2026 at 10:08 am ET • 1 min read
Imagn Images There are 11 games on the Thursday MLB schedule, and sports fans looking for options on MLB betting and prop betting have a ton of players to target when it comes to home run picks. SportsLine MLB expert Adam Thompson has looked at the odds and matchups and found the best value on players to back on home run props for Thursday's games. They include a sweet-swinging lefty who should have the weather on his side Thursday.
Thompson was one of the earliest SportsLine experts back in 2016-19, and rejoined the company in 2026 following a stint as the primary betting analyst for the Gambling.com Group. An analytics-driven exploiter of matchups, Adam specializes in the NFL, MLB and the NBA. He also has delivered consistent winners in college basketball, horse racing and golf. Over the past two seasons, he's up over 70 units in MLB and over 60 units in the NBA.
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Best home run picks for Thursday, April 30
- George Springer, Blue Jays (+486)
- Bryce Harper, Phillies (+508)
George Springer, Blue Jays (+486, DraftKings)
It's been a rough start to 2026 for the Blue Jays and their star outfielder. Springer is batting .196 and has just two home runs while Toronto ranks 24th in scoring, a full run below last year's mark. However, Springer has a favorable matchup to help him get out of the funk. In 17 career at-bats against Twins starter Bailey Ober, Springer has three homers with a robust 1.294 OPS. The odds are high enough to take a flyer on Springer, who drilled 32 homers last year.
Bryce Harper, Phillies (+508, DraftKings)
The wind is expected to be blowing left to right at Citizens Bank Park for the second game of a doubleheader. The San Francisco Giants' top sluggers are mostly right-handers, so the wind isn't a big factor there. For the Phillies we have the all-or-nothing Kyle Schwarber, who is hitting under .200 vs. both left-handed and right-handed pitching. But we also have Harper, who is doing better against left-handers and crushing righties.
Schwarber has nine home runs to Harper's six, but they've hit the same amount over the last week (2) and over the last two weeks (3). Schwarber's HR odds are in the +380 range. Player-to-player, we're getting far better value backing Harper.
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