It's a busy Monday in MLB, with 13 games on the schedule, and that means loads of options for MLB betting and home run prop betting. The Braves will be looking to break out of a bit of a funk when they visit the Padres in the nightcap at 10:10 p.m. ET. Other intriguing matchups include Yankees vs. Tigers at 6:10 p.m. ET and Guardians vs. White Sox at 7:40 p.m. ET, but it doesn't have to be a great matchup for you to cash your best bet to hit a home run today. Anyone who wants to wager on the best home run bets today needs to see who SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca is backing to go deep.
Magliocca, also known as "Amags," is a hugely profitable MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Best home run picks for Monday
- Brice Turang (+483, DraftKings)
- Jackson Chourio (+373, DraftKings)
- Jake Bauers (+324, DraftKings)
Brady Singer has had some real home run issues this year, with 17 allowed in 65 innings thus far. Pitching in Great American Ballpark doesn't help, but he's been evenly split with nine homers allowed at home and eight on the road. This isn't a home and away issue, this is a Brady Singer issue. He's been better the past few outings by allowing just one bomb in three June starts. Two of those were on the road, and I like targeting him back in good hitting conditions in Cincy tonight.
Lefties have been the larger issue for Singer, as he has allowed 11 home runs with a .324 average. He's mainly a two-pitch pitcher against lefties, which doesn't help. His sinker and slider have yielded a xSLG of .432 and .458, respectively, vs. left-handed batters.
Seven left-handed homers have come off those two pitches, and guys like Brice Turang have been great against those offerings from righties. Turang's barrel rate and hard-hit rate are at career highs, and he's on pace to exceed 20 home runs for the first time, as well. The current price of +483 is showing value here tonight, and I'm also going to play the hits, runs and RBI prop on Turang.
Turang's Brewers teammates Chourio and Bauers are also on my radar for homers, as Bauers has been incredible against righties (11 HR) and the main pitch offerings from Singer. Chourio also projects well against the Cincy starter but looks even better against a bad bullpen likely needing to work four-plus innings tonight.
Worth Noting: I also like Kyle Stowers (+438) to continue his home run barrage Monday, but the Rangers just pivoted to using a lefty opener tonight to try to neutralize some of the left-handed power bats atop the Marlins' lineup. That doesn't bode too well for Stowers, who has hit seven of his eight bombs vs. righties. The full-game home run price has gotten a bit better, but I'm going to wait until Kumar Rocker comes into the game to bet the home run. I might just bet the at-bat home run market here instead, as Rocker may only last a few innings.
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