The MLB trade deadline is Aug. 3 and a lot of teams are looking for a right-handed power hitter. To that end, and because I was working on Friday's home run prop picks, I wondered what the "record" was regarding a player's home run total when he was dealt midseason. And thank you AI -- I did double-check because AI once sent me to Albury Street instead of Arby's -- the answer is Eugenio Suarez. He was at 36 homers last July when he was traded by Arizona to Seattle. Suarez helped the Mariners reached the ALCS but is having a down 2026 campaign with the Reds. I do think we could see a 30-homer hitter dealt this year as well in Colorado's Hunter Goodman.
It's certainly not my favorite Friday of the year for home run picks because there are no games in hitter-happy Cincinnati, Denver or Sacramento. Doesn't look like a particularly great weather night for homers across the country, either, but also doesn't appear any postponements are likely.
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Those who want to get into MLB betting, particularly home run prop betting, need to take a look at what I'm playing for Friday's games. Over the past four MLB seasons, I'm up $1,681 on MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.
Last Friday, my home run picks were the Nationals' James Wood and the Rockies' Willi Castro. Washington scored 23 runs and hit four homers at Sacramento; Wood had two RBI but didn't go yard. Castro was bit of a surprise hit priced at +450 as he hit just his eighth homer of the year at the time in a win over visiting Cincinnati. That's why I try to play hitter at Coors Field where I can. Believe I have now hit in a player in this space three of the past four Fridays. And a reminder that any HR recommendations mean that I like Over 1.5 total bases even more.
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Top MLB home run picks for Friday, July 24
- Kyle Tucker, Dodgers (+670, FanDuel)
- Salvador Perez, Royals (+650, DraftKings)
Kyle Tucker, Dodgers (+670, FanDuel)
Back in the spring, Dodgers at Mets looked like it might be an important series, but of course thanks to New York it is not. It's a 7:10 ET first pitch at Citi Field. Only a high of 76 by first pitch (must be nice) and winds a bit sideways and not really a factor. Both clubs were off Thursday, so there should be no lineup surprises.
Something about the 24th of the month lures me in on Dodgers outfielder Kyle Tucker, as on April 24 I looked at his first game against his ex-Cubs team and Tucker was 0-for-3. There's little doubt that the 29-year-old has failed to come close to living up to the four-year, $240 million free-agent contract he was given this past offseason by the Dodgers. This season alone, they are paying $119.7 million for his services when including luxury taxes. That number was more than the Opening Day payrolls of 11 teams.
Tucker is batting .236 with seven homers, although he was never a prodigious power hitter with a career high of 30 dingers and hasn't reached that mark since 2022. So, I hope it was worth it, Dodgers, as the Tucker contract may be the inciting incident for a work stoppage in 2027 as other owners now insist on a salary cap. Tucker has two hits in his last 25 at-bats with his last homer on June 27.
Perhaps facing struggling Mets lefty Sean Manaea turns the tide for Tucker. Manaea is 2-5 with a 4.74 ERA and has surrendered 12 homers in 81.0 innings -- including exactly two in each of the past three outings. The 34-year-old hasn't faced Tucker in a Dodgers uniform yet, but Tucker is 8-for-22 off him with a double and four homers, good for a 1.346 OPS that is about double Tucker's current season number of .689.
Also consider Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts, who has a career 1.044 OPS in 36 at-bats off Manaea with seven extra-base hits, three of those homers. Betts has 13 dingers on the season but only two since June 28. Both of those came Monday in a loss at Philadelphia. Tommy Edman (4-for-5, two HR, 2B) also has good if limited splits off Manaea.
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Salvador Perez, Royals (+650, DraftKings)
First pitch of 6:40 ET from Comerica Park between the Royals and Tigers. We get a matchup of potential Hall of Famers in Detroit pitcher Tarik Skubal and Kansas City catcher Salvador Perez. This might be Skubal's final start with the Tigers ahead of a possible trade. It seems like Detroit ownership leans toward selling one day and then keeping the band together for a possible playoff run the next.
After a few shaky starts following elbow surgery, Skubal (6-5, 2.83 ERA) has been excellent in his past four with only four total earned runs allowed over 23.0 innings with only two homers allowed. On the season, Skubal has surrendered 10 dingers. He hasn't faced Kansas City in 2026.
There's no doubt in my mind that the 36-year-old Perez will be a Hall of Famer, maybe just not on the first ballot. But he's arguably a Top 15 catcher in history combining offense and defense, pitch-framing, etc. Perez's power is slightly down this season with 14 homers, but he has gone yard in three of his past six games and Wednesday hit career dinger No. 317. That tied the franchise record set by Hall of Fame third baseman George Brett.
Perez badly wanted to at least tie the mark at Kauffman Stadium, but he probably won't break it there considering tonight is the second game of a 10-game road trip. When Salvy passes Brett, he will become only the third active player to own his current team's all-time home run record, and will join Mike Trout (422 with the Angels) and Manny Machado (214 with the Padres).
Very few big-leaguers can say they have good career splits off Skubal, but Perez's are pretty solid: four homers, two doubles and a .282 average in 39 at-bats. Those four homers are tied for the most of any hitter ever against Skubal along with the Yankees' Paul Goldschmidt.
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