Francisco Alvarez returns just a month after suffering torn meniscus as Mets hang around tight wild-card race

The gradually improving New York Mets got a boost on Tuesday with the activation of catcher Francisco Alvarez from the injured list. Catcher Hayden Senger was optioned back to Triple-A in a corresponding move.

The 24-year-old Alvarez has been sidelined since May 12 with a torn meniscus in his right knee. Through 37 games played and 128 plate appearances this season, Alvarez owns a slash line of .241/.317/.393 with four home runs and an OPS+ of 100. That's solid production by positional standards -- the average catcher this season has a line of .226/.299/.373. Also, in 2026 Mets catchers other than Alvarez -- meaning Senger and Luis Torrens -- have combined to bat just .203/.248/.314. In those senses, Alvarez's return is a welcome one for the Mets.

There's also the sense that Alvarez, a highly regarded prospect coming up through the system and a player who hit 25 home runs in 123 games as a rookie in 2023, still hasn't reached his ceiling as a hitter. That's notable for a Mets lineup that remains without the likes of Francisco Lindor (calf strain), Luis Robert Jr. (herniated disc), Jorge Polanco (wrist contusion), and Tyrone Taylor (strained hip flexor). In related matters, the Mets' offense right now ranks just 25th in Major League Baseball in runs scored, 29th in OPS, and 29th in on-base percentage.

In spite of all those absences -- there are more injuries to be found in the rotation -- and the relatively punchless attack, the Mets are in the process of climbing back into relevance. As recently as May 26, the Mets sat 11 games under .500, and manager Carlos Mendoza wasn't far removed from speculation that he'd lose his job at any moment. Since then, though, the Mets have gone 7-4, which puts them at 29-36 going into a key three-game home series against the upstart St. Louis Cardinals. Yes, the Mets are still solidly below .500 and in last place in the National League East. However, their -5 run differential suggests they've played more like a .500-ish team at a fundamental level. As well, that third and final wild-card spot in the NL makes for a very permissive definition of "contender."

Right now, the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres are tied for that third and final spot at 34-31. That puts the Mets at five games out of playoff position and behind a total of seven teams in that particular queue. The Mets also project better than some of those teams moving forward, and that'll especially be the case once even more reinforcements come off the IL. On the downside for the Mets, they have the toughest remaining schedule in all of MLB as measured by opponents' average winning percentage.

Add up all those considerations, and you'll find that FanGraphs right now gives the Mets a 21.5% chance of making the playoffs right now. Those aren't good odds, obviously, but they're workable. Back on May 26 -- that aforementioned low point of the season -- the Mets' odds were 13.6%. So, yes, there's a soft trend in the desired direction for the Mets and their rooters. Thanks to their start to the season, the 2026 campaign is likely to end in disappointment for the Mets, but their recent work -- and the return of a player like Alvarez -- has improved their chances of flipping that particular script.