Florida vs. Iowa odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Florida Gators vs. Iowa Hawkeyes and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 second-round matchup on Sunday

The 2026 NCAA Tournament continues with an intriguing second-round matchup on Sunday night, as the defending champion and No. 1 seed Florida faces No. 9 Iowa in the South Region. Florida dominated in its March Madness opener, destroying 16-seed Prairie View A&M by 59 points with a 114-55 score. Meanwhile, Iowa had a hard-fought 67-61 victory over No. 8 Clemson. Only one defending champion has advanced past the second round over the last eight NCAA Tournaments.

Tipoff from the Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla., is at 7:10 p.m. ET. This will me the first matchup between the programs. The Gators are 10.5-point favorites in the latest Florida vs. Iowa odds, while the over/under is 145.5. Before making any Iowa vs. Florida picks, check out the Florida vs. Iowa predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. 

Now, the model has simulated Iowa vs. Florida 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Florida vs. Iowa:

Iowa vs. Florida spread:    

Florida -10.5

Iowa vs. Florida over/under:    

145.5 points

Iowa vs. Florida money line:    

Florida -621, Iowa +447

Iowa vs. Florida picks:    

Iowa vs. Florida TV:

TBS

Top Florida vs. Iowa predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Iowa vs. Florida, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (145.5 points). The Over has gone 20-14 in Hawkeyes games this season, including hitting in three of their last four outings. Meanwhile, Gators games have eclipsed the total in back-to-back matchups, and the Over is 4-2 over Florida's last six games overall. Iowa also has a tendency to engage in high-scoring games versus potent offenses like what Florida possesses as the Over is 14-5 when the Hawkeyes play teams that average more than 72 ppg.

The Hawkeyes are projected to have the leading scorer in Bennett Stirtz, who tops 20 points. However, Florida is forecasted to have twice as many players score in double-figures than Iowa. The model sees the O/U being surpassed by double-digit points as the Over hits in 77.7% of simulations. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Iowa vs. Florida picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Florida vs. Iowa 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Florida vs. Iowa, and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Iowa vs. Florida spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.