SpaceX’s mega rocket Starship lifts off for a test flight from Starbase, Texas, Friday, July 24, 2026. (AP Photo/Eric Gay) The miracle of the latest test flight of the SpaceX Starship was not the launch, as spectacular as it always is. The true miracle of the Starship’s 13th flight occurred at the very end.
Whereas previous “soft landings” resulted in its explosion the moment the Starship touched the Indian Ocean, this time, the largest human-made object ever to fly in space landed like a ballet dancer and wound up floating in the water intact, still and sending telemetry. Elon Musk has ordered the Starship’s recovery, a monumental task, considering its size and mass.
SpaceX was able to extract a mountain of data from the telemetry and from drones flying over the floating rocket that will be invaluable for future test flights. Of particular interest was the condition of the heat tiles on the Starship which, for the first time, could be examined closely after reentry. The drones discovered damage to the tiles that may hamper rapid reusability crucial for operation of the launch vehicle.
The Starship also fulfilled a number of other goals, including deploying 20 functioning Starlink satellites and restarting one of the Raptor engines midflight. The only other major anomaly occurred when one of the Raptor engines on the SuperHeavy booster failed to light during the descent into the Gulf, causing the first stage rocket to come into the water harder than planned.
What does this mean for the Starship going forward?
According to Ars Technica, Musk is hoping to land the vehicle back at the Boca Chica launch site and capture it with the “chopstick” arms intact during the 14th test flight. If he succeeds, it will be a great milestone toward making the spacecraft operational and capable of, among other things, landing people and cargo on the lunar surface as part of NASA’s Artemis program.
If Flight 14 goes to orbit, the Starship may start deploying Starlink satellites routinely, another indication that the launch vehicle is starting to become partly operational. Starship will play an immense role in maintaining and expanding the Starlink network.
Beyond Flight 14, the Starship will have to increase its launch cadence and prove that it can be refueled in orbit so that it can be sent to the moon and, eventually, Mars. It will have to be ready to participate in the Artemis III Earth orbit mission, scheduled for 2027, and fly an uncrewed mission to the moon and back, proving it ready for the Artemis IV crewed moon landing, scheduled for 2028.
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman took to X and offered his congratulations on the flight: “Excited for what will be learned from this mission.”
As for the future, Isaacman added, “When Starship comes online, its capabilities will be game-changing, not least of which will be ensuring we never give up the Moon again!”
SpaceX stock has suffered a sharp decline since its initial public offering. But some analysts are optimistic of SpaceX’s long-term prospects. Forbes reports that UBS analyst Gavin Parsons said the crucial launch “was ‘intended to validate’ capabilities required of the rocket’s launch ramp, including booster engine relight ability.”
However, as The Motley Fool notes, those assessments are tempered by Morgan Stanley. It suggests that while SpaceX’s long-term prospects are bright, in the near term the Starship is going to be a money pit, costing $84 billion a year between 2027 and 2034 before SpaceX finally achieves positive cash flow by 2035.
Morgan Stanley has placed a $300 price target on SpaceX stock, more than twice its current price. In the meantime, SpaceX’s need to raise more capital will likely put a strain on its stock price.
Going forward, SpaceX will have to do two things to assuage investor confidence and maintain its image as a civilization-changing corporation.
First, the company needs to rack up more successes in subsequent test flights, proving that the Starship is adding capabilities that will eventually make it entirely operational. Second, it should continue to add revenue sources to balance the costs of developing Starship beyond the involvement in the Artemis program and projects like the Starlink system and the space-based AI Data Center project.
If the Starship could get, for example, some Golden Dome contracts, helping to build America’s new missile defense system, SpaceX could go a long way to becoming profitable.
Musk has already changed the world by slashing launch costs with his Falcon rockets. He is poised to do it again with Starship.
Mark R. Whittington, who writes frequently about space policy, has published a political study of space exploration entitled “Why is It So Hard to Go Back to the Moon?” as well as “The Moon, Mars and Beyond” and, most recently, “Why is America Going Back to the Moon?” He blogs at Curmudgeons Corner.
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